The headlines since Tuesday have naturally focused on Democratic control of Congress, but the results down ballot are as sweeping and may be more consequential in the long run. Many of America’s largest states are about to make a sharp left turn.
Democrats flipped at least 12 legislative chambers and five governorships (Nevada, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio). Democrats also look likely to flip the Alaska statehouse, which would give Democrats control of 30, the most since 1993.
Democrats are poised to control the governorships and legislatures in 22 states, up from 16. That will be the most governing “trifectas” Democrats have held since the early 1980s. Republicans will likely have 18 trifectas, typically in smaller states, after losing five. States that Republicans have dominated for years like Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio will now be under divided government.
Republicans lost both governorships and the house in Texas and Georgia. They lost both legislative chambers in New Hampshire, and GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte barely hung on. Tuesday’s vote will give Democrats complete control over Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
With the exception of Minnesota and Nevada, these are all states that Republicans won control of in 2010. And they have used that power to enact major reforms on taxes, education, union power and more. All of these will be Democratic targets for repeal.
Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s defeat means the state’s right-to-work law is in jeopardy. Democrats’ takeover of the Wisconsin Legislature will return government union control to Madison. Say sayonara to the Act 10 collective-bargaining reform and right-to-work law. Minnesota is the left’s Midwest model. Wisconsin’s top 7.65% income tax rate is already the 10th highest in the U.S. and highest in the Midwest, save for Minnesota (10.85%), and it is about to go up.
Wisconsin Democrats are all but certain to expand Medicaid under ObamaCare, and the new Democratic Governors of Georgia and Texas will also try to cut a deal with the remaining GOP legislators to do the same.
Universal education savings accounts will likely be a casualty of the new Democratic trifecta in Arizona. Its right-to-work law and flat 2.5% income tax are also at risk. Democrats in Sacramento must be ecstatic that Democrats will soon run Nevada and Arizona—less economic competition.
The GOP collapse will shrink laboratories of pro-growth policy, such as the tax cuts and school choice expansions in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Some GOP legislators in Georgia and Texas opposed education savings accounts, and they might work with Democratic Governors to roll them back. Other than public unions, the biggest winner on Tuesday was the plaintiff bar. Don’t be surprised if Republicans work with new Democratic Governors to declare open lawsuit season on business.
Republicans also lost state court races. Their 9-0 majority in the Texas Supreme Court will shrink to 5-4. Democrats appear to have gained a seat on Ohio’s high court, reducing its GOP majority to 5-2. This means there will be less of a judicial check on Democratic Governors who try to impose their left-wing agendas by executive fiat.
Oh, and don’t rule out mid-decade redistricting in states where Democrats have seized control. This could set up Democrats for bigger gains in Congress and statehouses in 2028. Recall how Democrats complained that gerrymanders after the 2010 midterms entrenched GOP power in statehouses. Unless the GOP reverses some of this year’s state losses in 2028 or 2030, Democrats will be poised after the next census to lock in their state dominance for a decade.
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A rare bright spot for the GOP this year was Florida, which is the only one of the 10 largest states where Republicans still run the government. This is a credit to GOP governance over three decades, notably Gov. Ron DeSantis’s eight reforming years. But even there they won races more narrowly than in any recent election.
The states are farm teams for political talent and test labs for government reform. The tragedy of Tuesday is that, owing to Mr. Trump’s second-term descent, a generation of conservative state reform is in peril and young political leaders are out of office.