Strait of Hormuz (AP Photo)

Will the UAE join Iran’s war and join the United States against Tehran? Abu Dhabi has every reason to step into the fray as Iran tightens its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, after suffering multiple attacks over the past month.According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE is currently actively weighing a military role in the conflict. An Arab official told the publication that the country is preparing to support the United States and its allies in reopening one of the world’s busiest oil routes.If the UAE takes this step, it will become the first Persian Gulf country to directly enter the war as a combatant, a significant shift after weeks of trying to stay on the sidelines amid repeated attacks by Iran.At the center of this transformation is the Strait of Hormuz, a lifeline for global energy flows and the heart of Abu Dhabi’s oil economy. Iran’s move to block the passage dealt a heavy blow to the UAE, forcing it to reconsider its long-held cautious approach.Meanwhile, not only has the vital waterway of Hormuz been choked, but multiple Iranian attacks on major Emirati cities such as Dubai, Sharjah and the capital Abu Dhabi have made the cause even more important.

Drive global support and alliances

Behind the scenes, the UAE is lobbying for international support. Officials told the Wall Street Journal that Abu Dhabi is pushing for a U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing action against Iran.Emirati diplomats have also urged the United States to form an alliance with major European and Asian powers to reopen the strait, even if this requires force. An Emirati official warned that Iran views the war as an existential issue and may be preparing to drag down the global economy by taking control of the strait.The official said the UAE was reviewing how to make a military contribution, including mine clearance and support operations.

High-risk options on the table

There are more radical ideas on the table. According to Arab officials, the UAE has recommended that the United States seize strategic islands such as Abu Musa, which Iran has controlled for decades but which the UAE claims sovereignty over.Publicly, the UAE has framed its position around global norms. Its foreign ministry pointed to United Nations resolutions condemning the Iranian attack and disruption of maritime traffic. The report stated that “there is broad global consensus that freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be maintained.”

Gulf sentiment hardens against Iran

Across the Bay Area, the mood appears to be changing. Saudi Arabia and other countries have become increasingly hostile to Iran’s leadership and want the war to continue until the regime is weakened or overthrown, although they have not yet sent troops.Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, has backed a U.N. resolution expected to be voted on soon.

From mediation to military calculations

The UAE’s changing stance marks a sharp shift from its previous approach. Over the years, Dubai has remained a business hub with deep financial ties to Iran, and Emirati leaders have often sought to mediate tensions.Just before the war, diplomatic efforts were ongoing, including a visit to Abu Dhabi by Iranian official Ali Larijani.Now, the calculation has changed. The UAE is working more closely with President Donald Trump to push allies to take more responsibility, particularly in securing the Strait of Hormuz. There are reports that Trump is even willing to end the war without reopening the strait, leaving that burden on regional players.

Rising risks and threats of retaliation

But joining the conflict carries serious risks. Iran has stepped up its attacks on the UAE, launching waves of missiles and drones. In a recent upgrade, nearly 50 shells were fired in one day.Tehran has warned that it will target the civilian infrastructure of any Gulf state that supports military action against it.“The result of their involvement in this war may simply be to face a more aggressive Iran, continue to absorb the blow to critical infrastructure and potential investor confidence, and then work to rebuild relationships with their neighbors, especially if Trump chooses to declare victory before reopening the strait or degrading Iran’s missile and drone capabilities,” Dent said.

The economic impact is already evident

Iran has launched nearly 2,500 missiles and drones at the UAE so far, more than any other country. The attacks have disrupted air travel, hurt tourism, shaken real estate markets and triggered layoffs, challenging the UAE’s image as a stable business hub.The country has taken draconian measures, including restricting Iranian nationals and closing Iran-linked institutions in Dubai.

Can the Straits be reopened by force?

Still, the biggest concern remains the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf officials believe European and Asian countries could work together to reopen, with United Nations support. But even without such approval, the UAE appears ready to take action.Whether the military operation will be successful is another question. Analysts warn that securing the strait requires control not only of the waterway but also of nearby land – a complex and dangerous operation.“I don’t think we can,” Rep. Adam Smith said. “What Iran has to do is be able to keep the strait under threat, which means they need a drone, they need a mine, they need a small suicide boat.”

The decisive choice for the UAE

Even so, some Gulf states believe the risk is worth taking. Allowing a hostile power to control such an important route could have long-term consequences for global trade and regional stability.For the UAE, the decision now is stark: remain under sustained attacks and economic pressure, or become embroiled in a war that could reshape the region and its future in unpredictable ways.