Russia is preparing to mobilize 500,000 personnel in the coming autumn and plans to send some conscripts to the eastern front within weeks of training, a Ukrainian official said on Saturday.Andrei Kovalenko, director of the Ukrainian Counter-Disinformation Center, said the Russian military command intends to use the mobilized troops to address current personnel shortages and determine new directions of action.“Russia is preparing to mobilize 500,000 people in the fall. Some of them plan to go into battle within the first two weeks to plug the holes in the east, while others will receive training for at least a month to potentially open up new front directions.” This is the plan of the Russian Federation,” Kovalenko wrote on Telegram.He added that Russian officials, including First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, had assured the leadership that the mobilization would ensure military superiority.
Recruiting shortages and election issues
Ukraine’s military intelligence assesses that Moscow has shied away from the topic of mobilization to mitigate domestic political risks ahead of the fall State Duma elections.Andrei Chernyak, an official in Ukraine’s military intelligence service, said the Russian government actively suppressed public discussion of the mobilization. “The Kremlin will now avoid the topic of mobilization as much as possible and say it will not happen because they are preparing for the elections,” Chernyak said, adding that the possibility of post-election mobilization remained high.Chernyak stressed that Russia has the infrastructure to handle a large influx of people. “They have enough training centres, they have enough existing training grounds. And there needs to be mobilization to strengthen those areas that are already there,” he said.
Russia misses recruitment targets
The expected mobilization was linked to a reported shortfall in Russian contracted military recruitment. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Russia signed only 195,000 military contracts, falling short of the target of 204,500. The agency also estimated Russian personnel losses at 196,700 in 2026, including about 115,300 “irreparable” losses.Regarding potential new attack axes, Chernyak said Ukrainian intelligence services currently observed no strike groups forming in Belarus. While some 50,000 Belarusian personnel and Russian support troops are stationed there, there are no immediate signs of an offensive buildup, although the troops could be moved within weeks.
