As motorists across the UAE await the release of fuel prices for March 2026, global oil markets are sending mixed signals. Oil prices eased in February, but a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, largely driven by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, has raised the possibility of a reversal of the trend in March.Fuel became cheaper again in February, Khaleej Times reported. The prices of Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus 91 have been reduced by around 8 to 9 fils per liter, reaching Dh2.45, Dh2.33 and Dh2.26 respectively. This marked the second consecutive month of rate cuts since December. Diesel prices have also been reduced.However, the global oil landscape has changed.Khaleej Times reported that Brent crude oil exceeded the $71 per barrel mark in February due to concerns about a possible military conflict between the United States and Iran. As of Tuesday evening, Brent crude and WTI were trading at $66.31 and $71.38 a barrel, respectively. Brent crude oil closed at an average $68.9 a barrel in February, compared with $63.47 a barrel the previous month.Energy analysts say geopolitics currently has a firm grip on market sentiment.S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin noted that there is currently a “premium” of about $10 in oil prices due to uncertainty over U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent hitting $72.33 on February 23.Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, ​​said the U.S.-Iran conflict was dominating oil markets, with what he called a “substantial geopolitical risk premium” causing prices to rise.“Military conflict seems inevitable, but such an escalation does not necessarily lead to oil supply disruptions, as has been shown many times over the past few years. What’s more, today’s oil market is highly supply resilient due to ample storage, production exceeding consumption and spare capacity,” he said.He added: “While we are not sure whether the current rally will top out in the high $70s or high $80s, we are more confident that risk premiums will weaken and oil prices will return to sub-$60 by mid-year. In today’s geopolitical situation, we maintain a neutral view.”Meanwhile, insurance premiums for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, hours after Tehran temporarily closed it, Khaleej Times reported earlier. Waterways are important arteries for global energy flow.Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said: “With tensions rising in the Middle East, the oil market has also returned to the spotlight. Brent crude has risen above $70, supported by rising geopolitical risks. Iran’s strategic position close to the Strait of Hormuz means that about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the strait, which means that any disruption could have significant consequences.”The UAE reviews petrol and diesel prices monthly, adjusting them based on the previous month’s global average oil prices and refined fuel costs. When crude oil prices rise, gasoline prices tend to follow suit; when they fall, motorists often find relief.With Brent prices averaging higher in February than in January and geopolitical risks still brewing, March prices may not provide the breathing room that drivers enjoyed last month.