Will Raul Castro’s accusation of shooting down a civilian plane in 1996 bring the United States and Cuba closer to war?

Raul Castro’s indictment by the United States for downing a civilian plane in 1996 has heightened tensions between Washington and Havana, with some analysts warning the move could bring the Cold War rivals closer to open conflict.Charges against the 94-year-old former Cuban president were announced this week in Miami, with Cuban exile groups welcoming the decision as long-awaited justice for the four Cuban Americans killed in 1996 when Cuban fighter jets shot down two planes operated by the Brothers Rescue Group.But in Cuba, Raúl Castro is still regarded by supporters as one of the main symbols of the communist revolution he founded with his revolutionary brother Fidel Castro.“He was the living embodiment of the revolution,” former U.S. diplomat Ricardo Zuniga told CNN.Zuniga was involved in secret negotiations to restore diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba during the Obama administration. He warned that the indictment could cut off communications between the two governments and make tensions more dangerous.“Ultimately, frustration on both sides could lead to conflict as Washington cuts off communications with the Cuban government through this indictment,” he said.The charges come as Cuba already faces one of its worst economic and humanitarian crises in decades. Fuel shortages, food shortages and prolonged power outages have added to growing discontent on the island, while new U.S. sanctions and restrictions are adding to pressure on Havana.U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized the Cuban government in recent months while also signaling that he remains open to a possible deal.“Whether you change the regime or not, I can (make a deal). This was a brutal regime and they killed a lot of people,” Trump said on Tuesday.The president added: “But this is a country that really needs help. They can’t turn on the lights, they can’t eat. We don’t want to see that.”Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American and long-time critic of the Castro family, has taken a harder line. He believes Cuba’s current leadership should step down.The indictment has emboldened anti-Castro groups in Miami, many of whom believe Cuba’s communist government is weakening and may eventually collapse under the pressure.“The era of the Castro family is over,” Cuban-American congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar said on the X show.For the Cuban exile community, the 1996 shooting remains one of the most painful chapters in U.S.-Cuba relations. The Rescue Brothers aircraft has been flying missions related to Cuban refugees and has previously dropped anti-government leaflets over Havana. Cuban authorities insisted at the time that the planes violated Cuban airspace and argued that the attack was an act of national sovereignty.Now, if the United States attempts to pursue Castro more aggressively, the indictment could set the stage for a direct confrontation. In theory, the charges could provide legal basis for extradition efforts or further action against senior Cuban officials.Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded defiantly, accusing Washington of trying to force political change in Cuba. Cuba’s military has increased drills across the country, while national messages warn citizens to prepare for possible aggression, CNN reportsDíaz-Canel also warned that any invading force would encounter a “bloodbath.”Analysts said that although Cuba’s military position is weak, any military confrontation would bring huge risks. Unlike Venezuela, where the United States has recently increased pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government, Cuba’s political and military leadership remains closely tied to the revolutionary system established over decades by Fidel and Raúl Castro.Although Raúl Castro officially left office many years ago, he still wields enormous symbolic influence within Cuba. He is often referred to as a revolutionary leader, and senior officials continue to seek his advice on major decisions.Zuniga warned that completely isolating the Cuban leadership could make the situation more unstable, not less.“By shutting down communications on the Cuban side, they may not realize that the next stage on the U.S. side could be some kind of attack,” he said.He added: “But there is nothing that can be destroyed that is not already worn out.”