Kerala exit polls 2026: UDF expected to win coastal state in tight contest with LDF

NEW DELHI: With the gap between the Left-led LDF and the Congress-led Democratic Front not wide, exit polls predict a tough contest between the two warring factions. Opinion polls show the UDF is expected to straddle a majority with 72 seats in Kerala’s 140-member assembly. However, the LDF is expected to lag not far behind the Congress-led faction, polls show, with the ruling front having 63 seats. Axis My India predicts the largest gap between LDF and UDF at 55 and 83 seats respectively.On the other hand, the PMARQ exit poll predicted that the ruling LDF would get a majority with 75 seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the ruling LDF government. Kerala’s electoral history has generally consisted of alternating LDF and UDF governments. However, back-to-back victories by the LDF under Vijayan in 2021 have broken this pattern, making the 2026 campaign a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact. The LDF’s defeat will also weaken the CPM’s presence in its last major stronghold.The campaign narrative has also changed significantly. The early stages were dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic problems, backdoor appointments, Sabarimala gold heist controversy, rehabilitation of Wayanad landslide victims and scandals involving opposition leaders. However, as the campaign intensified, these issues gave way to sharper political attacks, including accusations of secret alliances, polarizing community debates and direct exchanges between senior leaders.The LDF sees the election as a referendum on the “Pinarai model”, which emphasizes welfare expansion, infrastructure development and administrative centralization. It also promised to expand the welfare agenda if voted for governance.The UDF, on the other hand, advances a counter-narrative of “responsible welfare,” questioning the efficiency, transparency, and fiscal sustainability of government programs while banking on voter fatigue and economic concerns.NOTE: Exit polls are only survey-based predictions and may be proven wrong on results day (May 4).