The Republican Party’s decades-long dominance in Texas suffered a major setback in the November 3 US midterm elections, as Democrats won both the state’s Senate seat and the governor’s race. The results reflected, in part, renewed Democratic support among Hispanic voters and growing discontent over US President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, immigration and his war on Iran.
In the midterm elections, Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the US Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa unseated incumbent Greg Abbott to become Texas’s next governor, making history as the state’s first Latina to hold the post. Track live updates
Texas has been a Republican stronghold for decades. Democrats last won a US Senate election in the state in 1988, while the last Democratic governor, Ann Richards, left office in 1995.
The Democratic victories came after Republicans made inroads among Hispanic voters in Texas during the 2024 presidential race. So what drove the Democrats’ success this time?
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Hispanic voters shift back to Democrats
One of the biggest factors behind the Democratic victories was the shift among Hispanic voters, particularly in South Texas along the US-Mexico border.
Republicans had made significant inroads among Hispanic voters during the 2024 presidential election, with Trump winning Texas by double digits. That said, the midterm results showed Democrats regaining ground in several predominantly Hispanic border counties.
According to an Associated Press analysis, Talarico won roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters in Texas. He also secured strong leads in Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb counties, which had shifted towards Trump in 2024.
In Cameron County, Talarico led by 38 percentage points, despite Trump having won the county by six points in 2024. Talarico was also ahead by 47 points in Hidalgo County and 49 points in Webb County.
The shift was linked to concerns over rising prices and the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement measures.
Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of the voting group Mi Familia Vota, told Axios: “This is what happens when you mess with the Latino community. We are sending a clear message.”
Voto Latino executive director, Beatriz Lopez, attributed the Democratic victories to strong Latino turnout, driven by affordability concerns and opposition to Trump’s immigration policies, Reuters reported.
Hinojosa also sought to focus her campaign on issues affecting ordinary families rather than allowing the contest to be dominated by cultural and political divisions.
“We are as Texan and American as anyone,” she told Reuters in a July interview, adding that Latino families were also feeling the economic pressure.
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Trump’s economic record becomes a liability
Economic concerns was another major factor behind the Republican defeat. Trump won the 2024 presidential election on promises to control inflation and improve living standards. Voters, though, continued to face concerns over affordability, with rising costs of groceries, housing and fuel becoming major election issues.
Nearly nine in 10 voters identified the cost of living as a crucial or major factor in their vote, as per Reuters. Nearly two-thirds of voters in exit polls blamed Trump for high prices.
The economic backlash also affected Hispanic voters, many of whom had supported Trump in 2024 partly because of his promises on the economy. Voters’ frustration over high prices and concerns about corruption helped drive the Democratic victories in Texas, AP reported.
The cost of living and economic worries featured prominently in Democratic campaigns, as Republicans struggled to make their case to voters.
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Immigration crackdown alienates Hispanic voters
Trump’s immigration policies also appear to have contributed to the Republican losses. Republicans made border security a central campaign issue, particularly in Texas, which shares a long border with Mexico. The administration’s tougher immigration enforcement measures reportedly alienated some Hispanic voters.
The issue was particularly significant in border communities, where immigration enforcement can directly affect families and local economies. The midterm results showed that Republican gains among conservative Hispanic voters during the 2024 presidential election were not necessarily permanent.
The AP noted that Democratic gains in previously pro-Trump border counties reflected changing voter priorities, including concerns over immigration and the economy.
Iran war and fuel prices add to Trump’s problems
The US war on Iran was another major issue in the midterm elections, particularly because of its impact on fuel prices and household expenses. The US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28 and assassinated their Supreme Leader. Tehran, in retaliation, struck US bases across the Gulf and shut off the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil artery.
Democrats blamed Trump’s war and tariff policies for adding to the financial pressure on American families. Higher gasoline prices became a major concern as voters struggled with the cost of living.
Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods and the war against Iran had worsened the economic situation for many Americans, Reuters, in its analysis of the election results, reported.
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The president’s response on the campaign trail was to ask Americans to absorb higher costs even as his popularity sank.
Republicans underestimated the Hispanic voter backlash
The results also exposed the risks of Republican assumptions about Hispanic voters. Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2024 had led Republicans to believe that the demographic shift could represent a lasting political realignment.
The midterm results challenged that assumption. Republican support among Hispanic voters fell sharply, with economic anger helping drive the shift towards Democrats, Reuters reported.
The results suggested that Hispanic voters were not necessarily returning to their traditional Democratic loyalties, but were instead responding to dissatisfaction with the economy, immigration policies and Trump’s leadership. This distinction could be significant for both parties heading into the 2028 presidential election.
Trump blames Abbott’s ‘RINO’ tag for Texas election defeat
Donald Trump criticised Greg Abbott after his defeat to Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the Texas gubernatorial race. He claimed the Republican had lost because he became a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only) in the final six months of his political career.
Trump, who had endorsed Abbott in February and visited Texas several times to campaign for Republicans, wrote on Truth Social: “If Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, hadn’t become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn’t have lost.”
He also criticised Abbott’s campaign approach, saying he had “went back to his original formula, and it wasn’t pretty”. Abbott conceded the race around 10 pm on election night.
Who won in Texas?
Democrats also made gains in the US House of Representatives, one of the two chambers of the US Congress. They had won 11 of the 20 Texas district races called at the time, compared with nine Republican victories. Eighteen of the state’s 38 races were still uncalled, as per AP.
The Democratic winners included Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, Bobby Pulido, Veronica Escobar, Christian Menefee, Joaquin Castro, Henry Cuellar, Sylvia Garcia, Frederick Haynes, Colin Allred, Vicente Gonzalez and Greg Casar.
The AP later called two more races for Democrats: Katy Padilla Stout in District 23 and Johnny Garcia in District 35. Pulido defeated incumbent Monica De La Cruz in District 15, while Garcia beat Carlos De La Cruz in District 35. Padilla Stout won after Republican incumbent Tony Gonzales withdrew from the race.
Republicans had won the other nine called contests, including races for Nathaniel Moran, Ronny Jackson, August Pfluger, Randy Weber, Tom Sell, Mark Teixeira, John Carter, Brandon Gill and Pat Fallon.
What the Texas results mean for Republicans
The Democratic victories in Texas represent a major setback for Republicans, who had relied on the state as one of their strongest political bases.
Democrats had not won a statewide campaign in Texas since 1994. The Senate victory also marked the party’s first win in a Texas Senate election since 1988.