Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could cause major changes in the job market over the next two decades. He believes AI could eventually create “true abundance,” but the transition period could be extremely difficult for workers and society.
Gates said the period before AI creates widespread abundance could be “as tumultuous a period as there’s been in human history.” He warned that the transition would create winners and losers, with many people facing disruption as AI changes how businesses and industries operate, according to Gates on the “Decoder” podcast.
AI may replace office jobs
Gates expressed concern about the future of office-based jobs. He said roles in telephone sales, customer support and accounting could disappear because AI systems may perform these tasks much faster, at a much lower cost and with greater accuracy than humans.
AI tools can handle tasks that currently require human employees, including answering customer questions, managing support requests and processing financial information. Gates’ warning suggests that businesses could increasingly turn to AI if it can complete these jobs more cheaply and efficiently, based on Gates’ comments, as noted by Business Insider.
Robots could take over physical jobs
Gates said the risk is not limited to office workers. He expects humanoid robots to take over some physical jobs that currently require human labour, potentially changing employment in industries that depend on workers performing tasks by hand.
Gates warned that, unless the development of AI and robotics is massively slowed or stopped, machines could eventually perform a wide range of physical tasks. He specifically mentioned robots that could build houses, grow food and even perform surgery.
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Gates suggested that advanced AI and robotics could eventually perform almost every task currently carried out by people to produce goods and services. He said that, in such a future, human labour might no longer be necessary for most goods and services.
Despite his concerns about job losses, Gates believes AI could create a future in which goods and services become far easier and cheaper to produce. Such a change could improve access to products and services, although his warning focuses on the difficult period society may face before reaching that stage.
Work gives people purpose
Gates also discussed how difficult it could be to accept a future in which AI performs tasks better than humans. He used his own work in philanthropy as an example, pointing to his efforts to fight malaria and address other humanitarian problems, according to Business Insider.
Referring to a possible future in which AI can handle complex problems more effectively, Gates joked about a machine telling him it could do a better job and asking him to go play pickleball while it took care of the work. He said the idea might sound humorous, but the reality would not be funny.
Gates stressed that employment plays an important role in people’s lives beyond earning money. He believes work gives people a sense of purpose, a reason to get up every day, opportunities to build relationships with colleagues and a way to create things and solve problems.
Gates’ concerns go beyond the financial impact of AI-driven unemployment. If machines take over many tasks, people could lose some of the social connections, daily routines and personal satisfaction they currently get from their jobs. His comments highlight the wider social challenges that could come with automation, as noted by Business Insider.
Shorter workweeks could protect jobs
Gates suggested that society might choose to reserve certain activities for people, even if AI eventually becomes capable of performing them better. He specifically mentioned art, sports, cooking and childcare as areas where people might continue to value human involvement.
Gates suggested that measures such as early retirement and limits on working hours could help preserve some level of human employment. If AI allows businesses to produce more with fewer workers, reducing the amount of time people work could be one way to share available employment opportunities.
Gates also imagined people deciding to use AI only for certain activities rather than allowing it to take over every part of their lives. He compared this possibility to the Amish, some communities of whom limit their use of modern technology. Such an approach could allow people to continue helping each other and developing original ideas.
Gates’ example suggests that some people may deliberately keep certain tasks in human hands, even when AI can perform them more efficiently. The aim would be to preserve cooperation, creativity and meaningful human relationships instead of focusing only on speed and productivity.
Gates is not the only prominent business leader to consider changes to working hours as AI advances. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have both proposed shorter workweeks as a potentially less painful alternative to unemployment caused by AI.
Musk and other tech leaders warn of job losses
Tesla and SpaceX chief Elon Musk has also predicted that the shift towards an AI-driven economy could be “bumpy.” He has proposed government payments for everyone as a possible response to job losses caused by the technology, according to Business Insider.
Musk has argued that technological advances could drive production costs so low that people could obtain almost anything they want. In his vision, work could eventually become optional because AI and automation would make goods and services widely available.
Musk has also suggested that people may not need to save for retirement in the same way they do today. He has argued that, within 10 or 20 years, technological advances could make money less important. However, this is his prediction about a possible future, not an established outcome.
Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI company Anthropic, has also highlighted the risks that could come with rapid AI development. He believes AI could raise the quality of life for everyone, but warned that the short-term shock could be unprecedented in scale.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a different view in May. He said AI had not taken away as many office jobs as he had expected. He also said he no longer believed AI would cause a huge jobs crisis, according to Business Insider.
Fears about AI replacing workers have grown as big companies like Amazon and Meta have announced major job cuts. This has raised concerns about how AI and machines could affect jobs in the technology sector and other industries.
However, the US unemployment rate has not increased significantly during the AI boom, according to Business Insider. This means fears about AI taking away jobs have not yet led to a major rise in unemployment across the country.
Gates’ warning raises an important question: How can people benefit from AI while also protecting jobs? AI could make goods and services cheaper and easier to access in the future. However, the next 20 years could bring major changes to jobs, working hours and education. Governments, companies and workers may have to find new ways to prepare for these changes, according to Business Insider.