Israel will vote on October 27 in the country’s first general election since a Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 triggered a multi-front war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.The vote will become the most important in Israel’s modern history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He is seeking re-election despite polls suggesting his coalition may lose power.Yet Israel’s fragmented political system means pre-election surveys rarely tell the full story, and post-vote coalition negotiations often determine who ultimately becomes prime minister.Here’s a look at what the polls say, how Israel’s electoral system works, who Netanyahu’s main challengers are and what’s at stake in the election.
What do the polls show?
According to Reuters, successive opinion polls have put Netanyahu at an electoral disadvantage, with surveys predicting that his bloc may not be able to retain power.The Hamas attack on October 7 dealt a major blow to his image as Israel’s security leader, with public confidence in his leadership remaining weak despite widespread public support for military action against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.At the same time, opinion polls do not point to a clear alternative government. Israel’s coalition-based politics means even the party that finishes first may struggle to form a majority, leaving smaller parties in a strong bargaining position.Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has overcome political setbacks many times in the past to make the arithmetic of a coalition as important as the popular vote.
How do elections work in Israel?
Israel’s 120-member parliament is elected through a national proportional representation system. Israelis vote not for individual candidates but for political parties, which receive seats based on their share of the national vote. Any party that exceeds the 3.25% electoral threshold wins parliamentary representation.No single party can achieve an outright majority in parliament, making coalition governments the norm.After the results are announced, the parties will engage in coalition negotiations to obtain the 61-seat majority needed to govern. As a result, smaller parties often become kingmakers, extracting policy concessions or cabinet positions in exchange for their support.The upcoming election is also unusual, as Netanyahu’s current Knesset is one of the few in Israeli history to complete a full four-year term after years of political instability from 2019 to 2022.
Who is Netanyahu’s main rival?
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as one of Netanyahu’s most powerful challengers. Eisenkot, who lost a son during the Gaza war, has portrayed himself as a security-focused leader while simultaneously portraying himself as a political outsider with a reputation for integrity.Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are also seeking to return to power.The two had previously joined forces in 2021 to form a diverse coalition that included liberals, conservatives and the first Islamic Arab party to oust Netanyahu. The government lasted 18 months before collapsing.Another prominent challenger is former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, once a close ally of Netanyahu.Lieberman has since become one of the prime minister’s fiercest critics, accusing him of being too soft on Hamas before breaking with the government.Netanyahu’s own coalition includes support from his Likud party, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Itamar Bengvir’s Jewish forces and ultra-Orthodox parties, while the opposition also includes Arab parties and the left-wing Democratic Party led by former general Yair Golan. Party lists could still change before the September nomination deadline.
What are the key issues in the election?
Accountability on October 7: Opposition parties have called for the establishment of an independent commission to investigate the failure of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack, arguing that accountability should be a top priority for the next government.Netanyahu’s government has rejected that approach in favor of investigations into political appointments while also facing scrutiny over its past policies toward Qatar, which has provided financial support to Gaza.National Security: Since October 7, Israel’s military strategy has undergone a major shift, with longer-term operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iran, and against the Houthis in Yemen replacing the country’s traditional short-term war doctrine.The ongoing deployment has intensified debates over military readiness, manpower shortages and the long-term economic and diplomatic costs of fighting on multiple fronts.Religion and Military Service: Mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews remains one of the country’s most divisive political issues. Netanyahu’s allies favor retaining broad exemptions for religious students, while most opposition parties want to end them. The debate has expanded into broader questions about the role of religion in public life and Israel’s national identity.Living expenses: While security issues have dominated the campaign, economic issues remain central to many voters. Israelis continue to deal with high living costs, expensive housing and increasing family stress.Surge in defense spending since 2023 adds new dimension to debate over balancing national security with domestic priorities
