Rahul Gandhi, Manikam Tagore, MK Stalin

Puducherry, a union territory in Tamil Nadu, will join the state in the polls in April. But the growing rift between the Congress and its ally DMK – which governs Tamil Nadu on its own despite their alliance – now threatens to spill over into Puducherry just months before crucial assembly elections.At the heart of the conflict is the Congress’s demand for power-sharing in Tamil Nadu and the need for more seats to be contested than in 2021 if the DMK-led bloc wins again. Pondicherry, due to its geographical and cultural proximity to Tamil Nadu, is also becoming the stage for this simmering rift.

Manickam Tagore, a close friend of former Congress president and current Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, has been at the forefront of the party’s bid for greater “respect” from the DMK in Tamil Nadu. Now, he has extended the demand for “respect” in Puducherry as well.How realistic were Tagore’s demands? Can he – or the Congress – force the DMK to back down? What are the chances of the DMK giving in? As the election approaches, can the coalition withstand internal pressure? Let’s take a closer look.

Congress: The giant of Puducherry politics

Politics in the former French colony of Pondicherry has been dominated by the Congress party. Three other parties have also formed the government here – DMK, AIADMK and All India NR Congress – but none enjoys the dominance of the Congress.The advantage is evident in numbers: seven of Puducherry’s 10 chief ministers are from the Congress party.

This political success is also reflected in the United Emirates’ sole Lok Sabha seat. This constituency, also known as Puducherry, has contested 15 general elections since 1967, 11 of which were won by the great old party directly or through its factions.This legacy may explain why the Congress considers Puducherry politically important. Given its long-term dominance and the risk of potential failure, Congress will be eager to regain its supremacy.

Against the backdrop of political tensions in Tamil Nadu, the first signs of possible spread to Puducherry emerged on February 6. Tagore posted on social media that day, citing electoral data, arguing that the Congress – not the DMK – should lead their alliance in Puducherry.

Manikam Tagore

“Will the party with 8% of the vote lead the coalition? No, the party with 26% of the vote will lead. Why should the Congress be disparaged in the coalition government? ” he asked.ALSO READ | ‘26% vote vs 8% vote’: DRC MP Tagore targets ally DMK; seeks leadership role for Puducherry unit in poll-limited UTThe data he mentioned comes from the 2014 election. He did not explain why he chose data from more than a decade ago, specifically from parliamentary elections rather than parliamentary races. In that election, the Congress came second in the Puducherry Lok Sabha constituency, while the DMK came fourth. Congress candidate V Narayanasamy, who became chief minister two years later and served for more than four years, secured 26.35 per cent votes, while DMK’s AMH Nazeem came fourth with 8.19 per cent votes.DMK election chief and Lok Sabha MP S Jagathrakshakan’s visit to Puducherry seems to have triggered the current incident. He did not meet Congress leaders during the visit and this “snubbing”, coupled with the ongoing friction in Tamil Nadu, appears to have triggered Tagore’s outburst.But beyond the direct provocation, the bigger question is whether his claims are merely rhetorical gestures or whether they are grounded in electoral realities.

Puducherry Congress: Historically Dominant – Less Important Today?

Despite Tagore’s confident stance, the reality seemed far less encouraging – if not outright shocking – for the Congress party in Puducherry, which was once the dominant political force there. While the DMK remains the undisputed leader of the Tamil Nadu alliance, the Congress now finds itself in a relatively weak position in Puducherry. While it won the Puducherry seat in the last two general elections, its performance in the 2021 assembly elections was far less impressive. The Congress won only two of the 14 seats it contested, a sharp drop from the 15 out of 21 seats it won during its successful campaign five years ago. In contrast, the DMK contested 13 parliamentary constituencies under a seat-sharing arrangement and won six of them, thereby securing the position of Leader of the Opposition in Parliament. The DMK, currently led by Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin, secured only two seats out of the nine it contested in 2016. Tagore’s remarks can therefore be read as both an election season gesture and a calculated attempt to put pressure on the LDF in Puducherry and even Tamil Nadu.

Leverage-free Congress?

The DMK remains a significant political player in Puducherry, while the Congress is largely marginalized in Tamil Nadu – last leading the government in 1967 and last as leader of the opposition in 1996.The Dravidian major’s categorical refusal to share power in the southern state – a position reiterated by Stalin himself – poses a major challenge to the Congress party, leaving it to try to assert its position in Puducherry, where the party’s historical influence remains and where it did not hold power until 2021.