A month into the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, there are few signs of easing, with military operations continuing on multiple fronts and diplomatic efforts making limited progress.
One of the key reasons conflicts persist is a lack of consistency in end goals. According to BBC News, the President of the United States Donald Trump Different goals have been stated: from containing Iran’s nuclear program to promoting political change in Tehran.
IranHowever, the United States has refused to make concessions on key issues such as its missile program and regional alliances. As the BBC noted, Tehran wants the war to end quickly but “at any cost,” especially if it involves giving in to U.S. demands.
Meanwhile, Israel is focusing on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities and limiting what it sees as existential threats, thereby reducing the likelihood of a ceasefire.
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Why have diplomatic efforts failed so far?
Earlier this year, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran made some progress, particularly on the nuclear issue. However, negotiations have stalled because Iran is unwilling to discuss its ballistic missile program or its support for regional proxy groups, according to BBC News.
The New Humanitarian also reports that while back-channel communication may be ongoing, it may be through e.g. Pakistan. The status of any meaningful negotiations remains unclear.
No agreement could be reached on core issues, and no breakthrough could be achieved through diplomatic channels.
How does continued military escalation sustain the conflict?
Fighting continues in the region, with Iran continuing its missile and drone attacks on Israel and Gulf states.
The attacks have spread beyond Israel, with incidents also taking place in places like Abu Dhabi, The New Humanitarian reported.
Israel has also expanded its military operations, including plans to establish a “defensive buffer zone” in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has further inflamed the conflict by vowing to continue fighting “without limits.”
Meanwhile, there are reports that the United States is considering sending additional troops to the region.
What role do regional tensions and alliances play?
The conflict has attracted multiple regional actors, complicating efforts to contain it. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have expressed concerns about attacks linked to Iranian-backed forces, The New Humanitarian reported.
Iran also warned that commercial websites linked to U.S. interests could be targeted, raising concerns about further escalation.
Why isn’t there a clear exit strategy yet?
According to the New Humanitarian, Iranian authorities reported at least 1,900 deaths in the previous four weeks. Despite mounting casualties, none of the major political parties appear ready to back down.
The United States is under pressure to demonstrate results, Iran seeks to show resilience and Israel aims to weaken its adversaries’ military capabilities.
Since both sides pursue different outcomes, the necessary conditions to end the war still do not exist.
