On May 2, 2021, Rahul Gandhi congratulated Mamata Banerjee and the people of West Bengal for “complete defeat of bjp“.“I am happy to congratulate Mamataji and the people of West Bengal for their resounding defeat of the BJP,” he wrote on Twitter (now known as X).However, the irony cannot be ignored. While the BJP was indeed ousted, it posted its strongest performance ever in the state – winning 77 seats compared with just three in 2016 – and firmly established itself as the TMC’s main challenger.
West Bengal Assembly Election Result 2021
congressIn contrast, account opening failed.Five years later, as Banerjee seeks a fourth consecutive term and the BJP sets its sights on forming its first government in West Bengal, the Congress finds itself out of the race and faced with a no-win situation: Mamata’s victory could make her the front-runner for the opposition prime ministerial candidate in 2029, while a victory for the BJP would add a major state to its list and further build its momentum ahead of the general election.Which of the two outcomes does the boss party prefer?
The rise of Mamata Banerjee
A former Congress leader, Banerjee founded the TMC in January 1998 and the party has since been part of the Congress- and BJP-led central government. Now an on-again, off-again ally of the Congress party, she ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule in West Bengal in 2011 and served two terms, firmly establishing herself as one of India’s most powerful regional leaders.
CM of West Bengal in the last 50 years
The BJP won 18 of West Bengal’s 42 constituencies in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but Banerjee made a strong comeback two years later to lead the Trinamool for a third consecutive term.Despite an aggressive campaign by the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the TMC victory, coupled with Banerjee’s decision to take on her former aide Suvendu Adhikari in his stronghold – where she narrowly lost – polished her credentials.
Mamata Banerjee Quotes
A fourth term would almost make her a strong contender as the opposition’s candidate for prime minister in 2029.
BJP emerges as main challenger to TMC
The BJP did not achieve immediate success in West Bengal after Modi became prime minister in May 2014, winning only two Lok Sabha seats that year and just three constituencies in the assembly elections two years later.This changed in 2019 when it won 303 Lok Sabha seats, 18 of them from West Bengal.In 2021, the BJP emerges as the main challenger to the TMC, although it is far from its target of 200 seats.
BJP surges in seats in Bengal
Nationally too, the saffron party, with 240 Lok Sabha MPs (more than the opposition combined), is still expected to win a fourth term despite no longer having a majority of its own, reinforcing the perception of continued state dominance.
Congress Party’s Decline in West Bengal and Beyond
In February this year, the Congress party unilaterally ended its alliance with the Left Front and announced that it would go it alone in West Bengal. Despite its long political history, the party has not had a chief minister in the state since 1977, ending its three-year run in power since 1947.
The arc of Congress party’s decline in Bengal
Its dominance in the West Bengal Lok Sabha is much more limited. The last time the state’s congressional representation reached double digits was in 1984, when it won 16 seats out of 414 nationally.Since then, the Congress has not secured a majority at the Center on its own. It has failed to cross the 100-seat mark in the past three Lok Sabha elections. It is currently in power in only three states: Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. The Congress party’s sacking of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a staunch Mamata critic, as head of its Bengal unit was seen by many as the party’s “capitulation” to the TMC supremo. Chaudhry has held the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat since 1999 (Muslims make up about half of the electorate). For the 2024 general elections, Banerjee nominated Yusuf Pathan, a native of Gujarat and former cricketer, who later ousted Chaudhry.
Adil Ranjan Chowdhury
Congress’s Rahul dilemma: Can’t win with him, not without him
The Congress party contested the 2014, 2019 and 2024 general elections under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, although he was not officially designated as the Congress prime minister. The 2019 defeat was a serious test in both its scale and context, and it came under his direct leadership as party president and soon after he presided over assembly victories in three Hindi heartland states in December 2018. Although he resigned as party president in July 2019, Gandhi remains the party’s most famous face and key decision-maker.
Rahul Gandhi’s career
The Congress party’s resurgence in 2024, and that of the wider opposition, has been widely attributed to Gandhi’s two “Bharat Jodo” pan-India marches, which many believe contributed to a significant shift in public perception of him. He was subsequently appointed Leader of the Opposition, the first since 2014.
Rahul Gandhi’s career
What followed, however, was a series of electoral reversals in state assembly elections. He later accused the Election Commission of irregularities, accused it of being biased against the BJP, and held multiple press conferences on the issue, but the frustrations continued.What pains Gandhi, according to political observers, is that he has never held public office – not even when his own party was in power from 2004 to 2014 – and the Congress’s poor electoral record under his leadership, his frequent foreign trips and his tendency to insist on solving problems even if they fail to resonate with voters – have raised persistent questions about his effectiveness as a national challenger.
Leadership issues within the Indian group
The India Group was formed in July 2023 to bring together the Congress and several regional parties opposed to the BJP under one umbrella. With the great old party being its de facto backbone, the alliance avoided projecting the face of the Prime Minister and succeeded in pushing the BJP below a majority.However, leadership issues remain, especially after the Congress’ consecutive defeats in state elections after the general election.In December 2024, after the defeat of Maha Vikas Aghadi (of which the Congress was a part) in Maharashtra, Banerjee expressed her willingness to lead the Indian outfit and received immediate support from senior leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav and Sharad Pawar.
Mamata Banerjee Quotes
Sharad Pawar quotes
For its part, the Congress has repeatedly avoided backing Banerjee, instead stressing the need to keep the alliance united. These include party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, whom Banerjee and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal proposed as the prime ministerial candidate in December 2023.
Malikajun Haag quotes
Gandhi has also continually downplayed suggestions that he should be seen as a contender, instead stressing the need for the EU to remain united to “save democracy” in what he has repeatedly described as a “battle of ideologies”.
Rahul Gandhi Quotes
However, in February, senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar unequivocally backed Banerjee, calling her “the leader of the alliance”. He also said that the India Bloc “belongs to the smaller parties” and Gandhi should “let them handle the matter”.
Mani Shankar Aiyar Quotes
This in turn has brought into focus the leadership issues within the Indian group.
What Bangladesh means to every player
Both the TMC and the BJP are trying hard to win West Bengal, each with their own unique reasons. For the Trinamool, retaining the state is crucial as it has little existence apart from the state. Defeat may not end Banerjee’s political career, but it would seriously curtail her national ambitions.
TMC’s SWOT
The BJP’s goals are both ideological and political – ideological because the founder of its predecessor, the Bharatiya Janata Party, Sharma Prasad Mukherjee was born here; political in that a victory would mark a significant expansion of its footprint and cement its position ahead of the 2029 elections.
SWOT Analysis of the Bharatiya Janata Party
For a Congress that has largely stayed out of the race, the campaign offers a chance to rebuild and improve its standing in the state but does little to change the overall situation.
Congressional SWOT
State races, national issues in Congress
Congress’s current suspension of power over the center is the longest ever and the first to last a decade or more. Still, it remains the only alternative state to the BJP.However, West Bengal poses a unique dilemma for the Congress – either further bolster the prospects of its national rivals in 2029 or provide a platform for regional rivals to play a larger national role.Polling in the state’s 294 assembly constituencies will be held in two phases. In the first phase on Thursday, 152 seats will go to the polls, while the remaining 142 seats will go to the polls on April 29, with counting scheduled for May 4.
