West Bengal, Tamil Nadu exit polls divided; give Assam to BJP, give Kerala to Congo

Exit polls on Wednesday agreed that the BJP-led alliance will easily win Assam, the UDF will replace the LDF in Kerala and the RSS-BJP coalition will retain Puducherry, but disagreed on the results in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.The most shocking prediction is that Axis My India predicts that Tamil Nadu will see a close contest (in that order) between the Vijay-led TVK (98-120 seats) and the DMK alliance (92-110), with the AIADMK-led NDA being the also-ran in the 234-member House. The three other exit polls considered here all gave the DMK-led alliance a majority, albeit a drop from five years ago.

In West Bengal, while Axis MY India did not announce its results on Wednesday and some other prominent pollsters preferred to wait another day, of the three polls here, P Marq predicted the BJP was most likely to win a majority in the 294-member assembly, while Matrize gave the saffron party the upper hand, albeit without a majority in a state it has never won in the past. In contrast, the third poll, People’s Pulse, predicted a decisive victory for the TMC, which would give Mamata Banerjee a fourth consecutive term.All four exit polls suggested the NDA could win a two-thirds majority in the 126-seat Assam Assembly, marking the first time the BJP has won a majority in the northeastern state.The Congress-led alliance is expected to get 24 to 40 seats.If the left fails it will not hold office in any stateIn Kerala, the consensus is that the UDF will win, although predictions range from 70 seats out of 140 at the bottom of the Matrize range to 90 seats at the top of the Axis My India range. The LDF is expected to end up with a maximum of 69 seats, meaning the left will not be able to govern in any state for the first time since 1977. India has a mixed record in exit polls. Results will be announced on Monday 4 May.