US-Canada trade war impact: Why toilet paper prices could rise for Americans amid President Trump’s tariffs
Americans could pay more for toilet paper and other household paper products as the escalating US-Canada trade war puts fresh pressure on an industry that depends heavily on cross-border supplies of raw materials.
The development follows Washington’s latest tariff measures and Canada’s decision to retaliate with tariffs on a wide range of American goods. The Guardian reported that paper products are among the sectors caught in the dispute, with Canada preparing tariffs of up to 50% on certain paper inputs.
Why toilet paper is caught in the trade war
Although much of the toilet paper sold in the US is manufactured domestically, American producers rely on Canada for lumber and other raw materials used in paper production.
According to The Guardian, the US imported about $328 million worth of toilet paper from Canada in 2024, making Canada by far the largest exporter of the product to the US.
The dependence on Canadian raw materials means tariffs can raise production costs even when the finished toilet paper is manufactured in the US. Manufacturers could absorb some of those additional costs, but sustained increases in input prices could eventually reach consumers.
How much could prices rise?
The exact impact on shoppers remains unclear because companies have several ways to respond to higher costs, including changing suppliers, renegotiating contracts or absorbing some of the tariffs.
The New York Postciting North Carolina State University professor Ronalds Gonzalez, reported that raw-material costs could rise by as much as 11% for toilet paper and 31% for paper towels under the new tariff environment.
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs
Canada has announced retaliatory measures against American products following the deterioration of trade negotiations with Washington.
According to the Government of Canada, new counter-tariffs will take effect on September 8 and cover a broad range of US imports. The official list includes toilet paper and facial tissue stock among the products targeted by the measures.
The Guardian reported that Canada is preparing tariffs of between 25% and 50% on certain paper products in retaliation for US tariffs.
What it means for American shoppers
Toilet paper is just one example of how the trade dispute could affect ordinary consumers.
The US and Canada have closely connected supply chains across manufacturing, agriculture, automobiles and consumer goods. When tariffs increase the cost of materials crossing the border, businesses face a choice between absorbing the expense and passing some of it on to customers.
There is no confirmed nationwide price increase for toilet paper at this point. But with tariffs affecting Canadian paper products and raw materials, household paper goods are emerging as another potential pressure point for American consumers.
