Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in March, the first month since the war began in 2022 that Kyiv appears to have surpassed Moscow in long-range drone strikes, according to daily military data analyzed by ABC News. The figures point to a possible shift on one of the war’s most important fronts: long-range strike warfare, in which both sides seek to damage infrastructure, weaken military capabilities and increase the costs of continuing the conflict. The Russian Defense Ministry said it shot down 7,347 Ukrainian drones in March, the highest monthly total the country has ever reported, with an average of 237 drones shot down per day. The ministry only releases data on Ukrainian drones it says have been intercepted. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air force said the country had been attacked by 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles this month. According to Kiev, 5,833 drones and 102 missiles were intercepted or neutralized — about 90 percent of the drones and just under 74 percent of the missiles. This means that Ukraine faced an average of more than 208 drones and 4 missiles per day in March. Even so, the total number of Russian drones and missiles reported by Ukraine – 6,600 in total – set a new monthly record for long-range attacks against Moscow, suggesting that Russia continues to carry out heavy air attacks even as Ukraine expands its own strike capabilities. But the importance of Ukraine’s growing drone campaign lies not just in its numbers but also in its targets. Last year, Ukraine placed special emphasis on attacking Russian refining and transportation infrastructure, aiming to disrupt a major source of revenue used to support Moscow’s military operations. The most high-profile attacks in March were on the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, two major oil export centers. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the attack as a “terrorist attack.” Zelensky defended such actions in February, saying the Russian energy sector was a “legitimate target” because oil revenue helped finance attacks in Ukraine. “We do not have to choose whether to strike military targets or energy targets,” Zelensky said in a speech to students at Kyiv’s National Aviation University. “He sold oil, took money, invested in weapons. He killed Ukrainians with these weapons,” Zelensky said of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian officials have largely tried to downplay the impact of the Ukraine attacks, often attributing damage and casualties to debris dropped by intercepted drones rather than direct strikes. When they admit to causing damage, they often describe the attacks as “terrorist attacks.” Nonetheless, publicly available videos and photos show that large numbers of Ukrainian drones are breaching Russian air defense systems and attacking sensitive military and industrial sites. Despite the resumption of U.S.-brokered peace talks, attacks have continued and drones and missiles remain core tools for Kiev and Moscow as they seek to undermine each other’s ability to fight and finance wars. At the same time, official data from both sides should also be treated with caution. Experts say both Moscow and Kiev may be interested in exaggerating the success of their air defense systems or emphasizing the scale of coming attacks to support broader political and military messages. Data from March suggest that while Russia is still firing more long-range weapons overall, Ukraine’s operations are becoming more widespread and sustained as domestic production increases. Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized the importance of expanding Ukraine’s long-range strike weapons arsenal. “Next year our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35 billion,” Zelensky said in October. “Despite all the difficulties they face, Ukrainians are creating their own defense products, which in some parameters already surpass many other countries in the world.” “Never in history has Ukraine’s defense been so far-flung, and never has Russia felt it so,” Zelensky added. “We must make the costs of war absolutely unacceptable to the aggressor – and we will.” Most Ukrainian attacks are believed to have been carried out using relatively cheap domestic drones. Ukraine is also increasingly using interceptor drones designed and built by Ukrainian companies to shoot down incoming Russian attack drones. Kiev is now also producing its own cruise missiles, including the Flamingo, which is said to have a range of more than 1,800 miles. But the projectiles cited in Russia’s daily reports are still dominated by drones. The Ukrainian Air Force releases daily data on Russian drone and missile attacks, including how many drones were intercepted and targets hit. According to these data, Russia conducted the largest 24-hour air strike by both sides this month on March 24, launching 948 drones and 34 missiles. The growing use of long-range drones has also fueled concerns that the war could spread beyond Russia and Ukraine. Drone incursions into neighboring countries have exacerbated these concerns, especially near NATO territory. NATO aircraft are regularly scrambled in countries such as Poland and Romania in response to Russian drone attacks near Ukraine’s western border.
