Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: Kejriwal’s breakthrough or Prashant Kishor’s ‘scary’ moment – what will it be for Vijay?

New Delhi: Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) exit poll projections raise one of the most interesting questions of the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections: Vijay On the cusp of a breakthrough like Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, or he will end up with an “arsh se farsh par” like Prashant Kishor’s Bihar experiment.The answer, at least today, depends on which exit poll one chooses to believe.Most predictions put TVK in the 10-24 seat range, making it a significant debut. Most pollsters believe Vijay’s party will position itself as a spoiler rather than a main contender. P-Marq and Matrize expect TVK to gain 10-12 seats, while Peoples Pulse is expected to gain 18-24 seats, indicating its significant appeal to urban and youth voters. In this scenario, Vijay’s party may end up splitting the anti-incumbency vote, thereby indirectly helping the DMK.But then outliers emerged.Axis MyIndia predicts a massive increase in TVK seats of 98-120 seats and if this number materializes on May 4, Vijay will be at the center of Tamil Nadu politics overnight. That would put him in Kejriwal territory: a first-timer who not only breaks through but becomes the center of national politics.Vijay also has his superstar Thalaivar image – an image that has played out in Tamil Nadu over the years with the rise of MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa.Yet unlike Delhi’s Kejriwal in 2013, who launched a unique anti-corruption wave, the contest in Tamil Nadu is layered, rooted in Dravidian politics, strong party machinery and decades of voter loyalty. Even if TVK performs strongly, it will not automatically translate into clout unless it translates popularity into booth efficiency, an area where established players like DMK and AIADMK still maintain a clear advantage.However, if these exit polls prove wrong on May 4 and Vijay’s grand political debut turns out to be a flop, the situation will be similar to what we saw in Bihar last year.Despite a lot of buzz surrounding the debut of political mastermind Prashant Kishor, his Jan Suraaj Party failed to even open its account in the assembly elections. The comparison with Prashant Kishor is also instructive in another respect. Kishor’s push for Bihar aims to create an alternative political space but has struggled to translate visibility into mass votes. If TVK’s performance remains within the lower range of forecasts, it may still succeed in changing vote shares and future alignments without an immediate challenge to power.So, is Vijay the next outsider who can turn momentum into empowerment like Kejriwal? Or will he have any impact like Kishore’s earlier political forays?The answer won’t be revealed until May 4th.