VijayTVK may tip the balance.What began as a contest over governance and welfare has sharpened into a larger political debate about identity, federalism and the status of states within the federation. Thanks to Stalin’s efforts to frame it as a struggle between the central government and the state, the movement maintained a national tone interspersed with Tamil Nadu’s unique political style.DMK The movement has the advantage of strong coalitions, a good governance record and clear welfare delivery. Chief Minister and DMK president Stalin symbolically launched his campaign from Tiruvarur, the hometown of his father M Karunanidhi, highlighting schemes for women and youth. As time went on, his message shifted to a sustained attack on the BJP-led coalition government. Stalin increasingly reminded voters of the “injustice” the center had done to the country and warned voters of what the center might do if its ally the ADMK returned to power.Gradually, monthly cash transfers and free bus rides for women and free breakfast schemes for students receded in the face of more strident political propaganda. At the height of the campaign, Stalin donned a black shirt and dramatically burned a copy of the delimitation bill, casting the election as a defense of Tamil Nadu’s rights against Delhi. Yet in his quieter, more direct outreach—his morning walks and unannounced visits to beneficiaries—he returned to the language of welfare and delivery.By the end of the campaign, Stalin tried to strike this balance. “My first signature after re-election was to distribute vouchers of Rs 8,000 to women,” he said.deputy chief minister Udayanidhi Stalin Gave top-notch speeches across the state. Stalin spoke in chaste Tamil, while Udayanidhi chose a more chatty and witty style, usually directed at EPS. Rahul Gandhi and Malikajon Khargage of the Congress party, besides AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, campaigned for the alliance, but Rahul and Stalin did not share a dais, sparking rumors of a split.The NDA has brought in its own national firepower, with Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Amit Shah holding roadshows and rallies. While Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu briefly contested the election, the alliance’s most committed contender was EPS.EPS has positioned himself as a self-made leader, with his message simple and direct, focusing on women’s safety, drugs and the DMK’s alleged governance failures. He started his post-Model Code campaign in Mylapore for the BJP candidate Tamilisai Soundararajan and traveled around, attacking mainly Stalin and Udhayanidhi. The DMK has repeatedly called them “BJP slaves” and the EPS personally attacked the Karunanidhi family after Udhayanidhi taunted him with an old photo of him lying at the feet of VK Sasikala.The alliance arithmetic of the BJP, PMK and AMMK coming together has added weight to the NDA. The exclusion of former BJP state president K Annamalai from the candidate list sparked reports of displeasure, but he eventually joined the campaign. While BJP president Nainar Nagendran finds his voice drowned out by the high-decibel cacophony of nationwide Netas, PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss is focused on consolidating Waniyar support for the NDA in the north and west.Wildcard Vijay continues to wreak havoc. His campaign has been smaller but attracted large crowds, and he has tried to portray the contest as one between the DMK and TVK, targeting Stalin while avoiding direct attacks on the EPS and the BJP. He campaigned in Perambur and Trichy East and fielded candidates in 233 seats, making his presence larger than his limited campaigning time might suggest.TOI’s analysis of the last week of the campaign shows that Stalin’s speaking time was 356 minutes and EPS 800 minutes, while Vijay’s was only 35 minutes. Yet Vijay’s presence has a high recall value – a sign that in an age of spectacle politics, visibility and influence are no longer directly proportional.Both Stalin and EPS chose to ignore Vijay to a large extent. Stalin’s latest attack on him came when he urged voters in Perampur to choose between “an inaccessible newcomer who puts on drama” and “an approachable and responsive leader”. Naam Tamilar Katchi’s Seeman made up for the shortcomings of the DMK and ADMK by simultaneously speaking eloquently about Tamil identity and self-respect politics against Vijay.All competitors are frantically flocking to social media, creating promos, impactful videos and memes. Although the ADMK-led alliance strongly opposed the rise in crime and corruption, it was unable to convert the anti-incumbency sentiment into a wave. If TVK stays away from anti-government votes and fails to win big votes on its own, and if common voters opt for continuity and welfare, then DMK may be in a good position.
Hot seats
edapadiThis seat in Salem district has long been the home turf of ADMK general secretary EPS. He has won five of the eight polls he has contested here, including three in a row dating to 2011. With the support of the community, Palaniswami is confident of his chances here, despite challenges from the DMK and colleagues-turned-enemies like O Panneerselvam and VK Sasikala.Past winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (ADMK)lalgudiLeema Rose Martin, wife of lottery tycoon Santiago Martin, who is also the richest candidate in these polls and claims her assets are worth over Rs 1,000 crore, is also in the fray. She joined the ADMK only in February, but the ADMK rank and file worked overtime to ensure her victory. The DMK has won the seat eight times since 1971 and has fielded a low-key candidate to replace sitting MLA Soundarapandian.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)ColeAsyourKolathur in Chennai has been represented by CM MK Stalin since its inception in 2011. In 2021, he defeated his ADMK rival by a margin of over 70,000 votes. The DMK will rely on Stalin’s affinity, governance record and party’s organizational strength to sustain its victory. The opposition highlighted local problems and governance shortcomings.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)madurai centralIT Minister Palanivel Thiagarajan is looking to score a hat-trick here. But he faces a battle as ADMK’s supporting ally Sundar C. of Puthiya Neethi Katchi (PNK). The actor-director’s wife Khushbu, an actress herself, has added a touch of glamor to his campaign. TVK’s VMS Mustafa and NTK’s K Abdul Hakkim may divide the minority votes, which may hurt the DMK.Previous winners: 2011 (DMDK); 2016, 2021 (DMK)perampurThis seat in north Chennai is where actor Joseph Vijay contested the polls for the first time. Once a left-wing bastion due to its large working-class population, it has become a Democratic Workers Party stronghold in recent years. Incumbent Sekar won in 2021 by more than 54,000 votes. Vijay chose this seat as 40,000 voters were registered on the TVP app and he hopes to win over Dalits and minorities.Previous winners: 2011 (CPM); 2016 (ADMK); 2021 (DMK)Chebauk – TriplicaneThis Chennai seat has been with the DMK since 2011. Udhayanidhi Stalin, son of Deputy Prime Minister and Chief Minister Stalin, won the seat in the first election of 2021 by a margin of over 69,000 votes. The seat has a large number of Muslim voters who could sway the election outcome. The DMK focused on its welfare measures, while the opposition spoke of local grievances like parking issues, narrow roads, etc.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)
