South Africa’s raptors are in trouble – study analyzes 16 years of road statistics

This is because they require large areas of living space, have low population densities, and reproduce slowly. For these reasons, they are vulnerable to human impacts, such as farming with pesticides, electrocution, collision with wind turbines, or poaching.

In many cases, by the time scientists and conservationists fully understand the extent of a species’ decline, it may be too late to take action. Therefore, good population monitoring is crucial to serve as an early warning system for population decline.

Many countries in the Southern Hemisphere have important raptor populations but lack effective monitoring programs.

Africa is an important continent for raptor diversity. Several studies across Africa have used road counts to monitor changes in raptor populations over time.

A recent study went a step further and combined trends from different surveys across Africa to better understand these changes on a pan-African scale. Unfortunately, no data from South Africa were available for inclusion in this analysis.

In our recent research, we drew on data collected by a dedicated field worker, Ronelle Visagie, who drove nearly 400,000 kilometers across South Africa’s central region between 2009 and 2025 while working for the Endangered Wildlife Trust’s Birds of Prey project.

Over those 16 years, Ronell counted all the raptors and large birds she saw on her work trips. Comparing how quickly these observations change over time allows us to explore species population trends.

We have enough data to study trends over this period for 18 raptor species and eight other large bird species. Unfortunately, we found no good news.

These road counts showed that 50% of species experienced significant declines, while only 3 species experienced significant increases. The remaining ten species showed no clear trends.

This downward trend raises serious concerns about the conservation status of several species in areas known to host important raptor populations. Urgent conservation action is therefore needed, especially for species whose numbers have declined by more than 50%.

Given that some of these species are not currently listed as threatened globally or regionally, their conservation status may need to be reassessed.

Raptor population trends

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According to our results, 42% of species assessed have declined by more than 50% over the past 16 years.

All three migratory species assessed experienced significant declines. These trends dovetail with other studies at northern hemisphere breeding grounds that also show their numbers are declining.

Protecting migratory species is particularly challenging because actions may be required in breeding areas, non-breeding areas and along migration routes, where the threats faced by these species may differ.

We also saw declines in the numbers of several resident birds of prey, including jackal vultures, vero’s eagles and secretary birds. In our study area, the abundance of these species has declined by more than 50%.

In contrast, numbers of white-necked crows, great kestrels and white-backed vultures have increased. The latter is a critically endangered species but appears to be increasing in our study area.

Some of the trends we detected are similar to a recent study that explored raptor population trends across Africa using methods similar to our study. For example, our findings of large declines in Secretarybirds and Lesser Kestrels are very similar to those reported in Kenya and Botswana.

Furthermore, similar changes in Secretarybird populations were found during winter using road counts in Namakaru during the period preceding our study.

This suggests that the decline previously identified may continue into the mid-2020s.

We compared the direction of trends in road counts and the Southern Africa Bird Atlas project. But only about half of the trends were consistent between the two methods.

Species with consistent trends between the two methods include the Amur Falcon and Lesser Kestrel (both trending downwards) and the Greater Kestrel and White-backed Vulture (both trending upwards).

Species with inconsistent trends all showed decreases according to our road counts but increases according to the Bird Atlas Project. These include Ludwig’s bustard, blue crane, secretary bird, black-winged kite and southern goshawk.

If we assume that our road count trends are reliable, these findings suggest that, although Bird Atlas Project data can provide valuable information about changes in bird distributions, atlas data may be less suitable for capturing changes in abundance at large spatial scales and across multiple species.

Across Africa, raptor declines are often linked to population growth, agricultural expansion and climate change. There have been no major recent changes in land use or population density in our study area, but more subtle or long-term human impacts may be driving these changes.

Conflicts between humans and raptors, including illegal killings, may play a role. Climate change and infrastructure such as power lines and wind farms are adding further pressure by destroying aerial habitats and affecting survival and reproduction.

Demographic trends

Africa’s population is expected to grow significantly over the next three decades, which will increase pressure on biodiversity.

Given the projected growth in Africa’s human population and the corresponding increase in demand for resources and energy, threats to vulnerable bird species are likely to become more severe.

Therefore, it is essential that we have reliable tools to monitor species trends and better understand the effects of these pressures.

This is crucial to understanding the current biodiversity crisis and preventing severe losses of wildlife. SKS

SKS

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