‘Only real leverage’: US intelligence report says Iran unlikely to reopen Strait of Hormuz anytime soon

According to Reuters, recent U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, as control of the key oil chokepoint remains its main leverage against the United States.Click here for live updates Tehran, which controls one side of the sea lane, effectively blocked the strait in response to a February 28 attack by the United States and Israel that sparked the ongoing Middle East conflict. About 20% of the world’s crude oil supply passes through this waterway. Iran may continue to disrupt traffic in a bid to keep global energy prices high, sources said, increasing pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to end a nearly five-week war that has been unpopular with U.S. voters. The conflict could also strengthen Iran’s regional standing by demonstrating its ability to threaten key trade routes. Trump downplayed the difficulty of reopening the strait, suggesting the U.S. military could do it quickly. “With a little more time we could easily open the Strait of Hormuz, access oil, and make a fortune,” he posted on Truth Social.ALSO READ | ‘Strait of Hormuz could easily be opened, accessed to oil and made rich’: Trump ‘gushingly’ claims Analysts warn, however, that military action would be risky and costly given Iran’s geographical advantage and its ability to strike using drones, missiles and naval tactics. Since the war began, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attacked commercial ships, deployed mines and imposed tolls, making shipping lanes unsafe and drastically reducing traffic. The actions have pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, triggering fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf exports and raising inflation risks ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Intelligence sources say Iran is unlikely to give up this influence even after a war. The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with a channel width of about 2 miles in each direction, making ships an easy target. Even a limited attack can disrupt traffic. Experts add that even if the United States controls security on parts of its coastline, Iran could still use long-range capabilities within its borders to disrupt shipping. Tehran may also seek to retain control to strengthen its negotiating position, ensure deterrence and generate revenue from transit fees for post-war reconstruction.