Over a month after US special forces lifted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro out of Caracas under cover of darkness, and flew him to New York to face federal drug trafficking charges, the South American country is navigating a new but uncertain political phase. suspended between rupture and continuity. The January 3 operation — which country’s interior minister Diosdado Cabello said left at least 100 people dead and 100 wounded — removed the country’s most polarising figure, and a president who had dominated the country’s politics for more than a decade, from office.
But it did not dismantle the political structure he built. His vice president Delcy Rodríguez assumed charge, as nation’s top boss, after the Supreme Court declared Maduro’s capture a “forced absence,” creating an unprecedented constitutional situation.In the weeks since, Caracas has seen rapid but uneven shifts. Diplomatic ties with Washington – severed in 2019 – are being restored. The oil sector, once the ideological centrepiece of Hugo Chavez’s socialist project, has been opened to private operators. Hundreds of detainees have been released under a proposed amnesty. Parts of the military leadership have been reshuffled. Opposition leaders have cautiously resurfaced.Yet the security apparatus remains in place. Elections have not been announced. Key figures of the old establishment continue in power. Public fear has receded in tone but not disappeared in practice.
Some see the removal of Nicolás Maduro as a possible opening for rebuilding Venezuela’s institutions and safeguarding citizens’ rights, while others remain sceptical about whether the period of “transition” described by the United States and acting President Delcy Rodríguez will actually lead to a democratic outcome or simply fall short of meaningful change.
For Venezuelans, the question is no longer whether Maduro is gone. It is whether what followed amounts to a political transition – or a tactical recalibration of the same system under new leadership.Here is what has changed – and what has not.
Diplomatic reset with Washington
Unlike the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States did not dismantle Venezuela’s governing apparatus. It allowed continuity through Rodríguez, who now leads an interim administration.US President Donald Trump has said he has been working “really well” with Rodríguez. Diplomatic relations, severed in 2019 under Maduro, are being restored. The US embassy in Caracas has resumed operations under chargé d’affaires Laura Dogu, and Venezuela appointed Félix Plasencia as its envoy to Washington.
Dogu said her meeting with Rodríguez and national assembly president Jorge Rodríguez was aimed at reiterating three priorities outlined by secretary of state Marco Rubio:
- Stabilization,
- Economic recovery, and
- Reconciliation and transition.
Venezuelan foreign minister Yván Gil described the step as the start of a new era committed to international law.At the same time, Trump has warned Rodríguez she could face consequences similar to Maduro’s if she does not comply with US demands on reforms and oil access. Rubio told a Senate committee: “I can tell you right now with full certainty, we are not postured to nor do we intend or expect to have to take any military action in Venezuela at any time.”The relationship is cooperative but conditional.
Oil reforms mark a structural shift
The most significant policy change has been in the oil sector, long a pillar of Hugo Chávez’s socialist project.Rodríguez introduced and signed into law reforms allowing private companies to operate independently in Venezuela’s energy sector rather than as minority partners of state oil company PDVSA. Royalty payments have been lowered and state control over exploration reduced. “This is the only way to obtain significant investments,” US-based Latin America energy analyst Francisco Monaldi told The Strait Times.
Trump has urged US oil companies to invest, though firms remain cautious given political uncertainty and the high costs of reviving production infrastructure weakened by corruption and sanctions. In the interim, the US government has directly seized and sold some Venezuelan oil.Rodríguez defended the overhaul, saying: “The people of Venezuela do not accept orders from any external factor. The people of Venezuela have a government, and this government obeys the people.”Analysts note that restoring production will take years and depends on stable governance and legal clarity. For India, which had previously been a major buyer of Venezuelan crude before US sanctions disrupted flows, the opening of the sector could alter supply calculations — though recovery in production is expected to take years, not months. As RAND experts note, Venezuela’s constraints are “less about geology than governance.”
Cabinet reshuffle, but continuity in power
Rodríguez has replaced several ministers and high-ranking military officials. According to experts cited by CNN, at least 28 significant changes have been made within the armed forces.Yet core figures remain. Interior minister Diosdado Cabello and defence minister Vladimir Padrino continue in office. Professor Guillermo Tell Aveledo described the situation as “a phase of readjustment.” RAND analyst Kelly Piazza said recent events show that “regime decapitation does not equal regime change.” The armed forces formally recognised Rodríguez as commander-in-chief. Legal scholar Juan Carlos Apitz questioned the move: “There cannot be two commanders,” he said, referring to Maduro’s prior role. The ruling party has also organised demonstrations demanding Maduro’s release, reflecting internal continuity even as policy shifts occur.
Amnesty announced, but debate over scope
Rodríguez has announced a general amnesty expected to be adopted by the national assembly. The government claims more than 800 political prisoners have been released.However, rights organisation Foro Penal says about 700 political prisoners remain detained. Its director Alfredo Romero said: “The amnesty is more about forgetting than forgiving,” and called for accountability. The interim government has also announced the closure of Helicoide prison, widely criticised by rights groups for alleged torture of dissidents.Benigno Alarcón, a political expert, said “the transition has not truly begun.” He argued that credible democratic change requires institutional reform, decentralisation of security forces and new elections. “The system is recalibrating the cost of repression,” Aveledo said, describing what he termed “tactical liberalisation.”
Economic signals: Modest shifts amid structural distress
There are tentative economic changes. Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros reported a 22% rise in real estate prices. Prices of meat and chicken have declined. Airlines, including American Airlines, have resumed operations.But the broader economic crisis persists. Public sector workers survive on roughly $160 a month; private sector employees earn about $237 on average. The minimum wage — 130 bolivars, or around $0.35 — has not been raised since 2022.
Margaret García, a teacher in Caracas, said: “We see that a negative moment has brought us positive things.”At the same time, anxiety lingers. A Caracas resident told CNN she is waiting to see if fundamental change is possible. “A real one,” she said.Retiree Julio Castillo expressed skepticism: “It’s an important change, certainly, but everything is the same, everything.”
Opposition re-emerges cautiously
Some opposition figures, including Andrés Velásquez and Delsa Solórzano, have appeared publicly after months in hiding. A private television channel aired footage of opposition leader María Corina Machado addressing reporters in Washington.Velásquez said: “I believe that Venezuela’s destiny cannot be an oil agreement and a dictatorship headed by Delcy Rodríguez, because we could simply define that as a continuation of the dictatorship.”Yet large demonstrations demanding elections have not taken place. Many citizens continue to self-censor. One resident told CNN: “Even law-abiding citizens can be stopped in the street at any time for a search or to be questioned.”
Wanted posters of opposition candidate Edmundo González, who disputes the July 2024 election results, remain displayed in some official locations.
Regional implications and migration
According to RAND expert Tahina Montoya, Venezuela’s crisis extends beyond its borders, contributing to one of the largest displacement crises in modern Latin American history. Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have left the country.Marie Jones of RAND said Venezuela’s trajectory influences regional norms around governance and electoral integrity. Piazza noted that while a democratic transition is possible, the most plausible near-term scenario is continued authoritarian persistence.Regional responses vary. Argentina has supported Maduro’s removal, while Colombia has criticised it as a violation of sovereignty. Other governments remain cautious.On Cuba, Jones said that disruption of Venezuelan oil flows increases economic pressure but collapse is not inevitable.Migration trends will be a key indicator. Montoya said that a coherent transition could slow outward flows, while instability could sustain them.
Transition or managed continuity?
Alarcón said authorities may delay elections depending on political calculations. “It will depend on the polls. If they see a chance of winning, they’ll call for elections. If not, they’ll postpone them,” he said. “They intend to buy time and maintain power.”Apitz argued that “the first step towards democracy in Venezuela is the full and unconditional release of all political prisoners.”RAND experts say policymakers should watch institutional independence, military alignment, economic transparency and human rights conditions.
Track two diplomacy, but for whom?
In a recent interview with an American journalist since assuming office, Rodríguez defended both her predecessor and her own authority. Speaking to NBC News’ “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker in Caracas, she said: “I can tell you President Nicolás Maduro is the legitimate president. I will tell you this as a lawyer, that I am. Both President Maduro and Cilia Flores, the first lady, are both innocent.” As Maduro sits in a federal detention in New York following his capture by US forces, Rodríguez has simultaneously been welcomed back into the diplomatic fold by President Trump.US energy secretary Chris Wright made a high-profile visit to Caracas as the two governments negotiated the distribution and sale of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Wright told Welker: “Ronald Reagan said ‘trust but verify.’ Trust but verify. We’ve been dealing with Delcy for five weeks now. It’s been an amazing cooperation.” “She’s delivered information. Everything we know so far has turned out to be true. She’s made enormous positive changes, including already changing the hydrocarbon law in the country in the first few weeks. So I would say that cooperation is off to a tremendous start.”
According to Wright, more than $1 billion in Venezuelan oil has already been sold, with an additional $5 billion in expected sales in the coming months. “So the Venezuelans are in charge here in Venezuela, but the United States has enormous leverage over the interim authorities in Venezuela — the largest revenue source that funds the government is now controlled by the United States,” Wright said. “If they’re driving positive change that benefits Americans and is improving the life opportunities of people in Venezuela, that money will flow. If they steer off that path, we have just simply tremendous leverage.”Emphasising her constitutional authority Rodríguez told NBC, “I can tell you I am in charge of the presidency of Venezuela, as it’s stated clearly in the constitution of Venezuela. And from the amount of work that I have, from how busy I am, I can tell you it’s very, very hard work and we’re doing it completely day by day.” The daughter of a revolutionary and herself sanctioned under the first Trump administration, Rodríguez initially sharply criticised the US military action that removed Maduro. In the weeks since, however, she has softened her tone and relented to US pressure and demands, even raising the possibility of visiting Washington after two phone calls with Trump.“I have been invited to the States,” Rodríguez told NBC News, adding that “we’re contemplating coming there once we establish this cooperation and we can move forward with everything.”
So has anything changed?
Still, the current government has not entirely shed the authoritarian structures built under Maduro and his predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez, who established much of Venezuela’s present security architecture.Recent events reflect that ambiguity. After being released from prison, prominent opposition figure Juan Pablo Guanipa was rearrested and placed under house arrest, according to his son Ramón Guanipa.At the same time, dozens of political prisoners have been freed in recent weeks, and political space appears to have opened modestly. A protest demanding the release of additional detainees was held outside the country’s highest court — an act that only months ago might have led to arrests.The fate of María Corina Machado remains a central question. Even after presenting her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump during a White House visit last month, Trump has not fully embraced her as a political contender inside Venezuela.“With regards to her life, we do not understand why there’s such a fuss about it,” Rodríguez said. “With regards to her coming back to the country, she will have to answer to Venezuela. Why she called upon a military intervention, why she called upon sanctions on Venezuela, and why she celebrated the actions that took place at the beginning of January.”Trump, for his part, has publicly endorsed Rodríguez’s government. Speaking at the White House, he described the bilateral relationship as “very good” and said the United States was “working together very closely” with her administration on oil.Asked whether he recognises Rodríguez as Venezuela’s official government, Trump responded: “Yeah, we have done that. We are dealing with them, and really right now they are doing a great job.”“The relationship we have right now with Venezuela I would say is a 10,” he added.
One month on
Venezuela today reflects a partial reset rather than a full transition. Diplomatic ties with Washington are reopening. Oil policy has shifted toward privatisation. Some prisoners have been freed. Opposition figures are cautiously visible.But the governing structure remains largely intact. Elections have not been scheduled. Fear has not disappeared.As the country moves beyond the immediate shock of Maduro’s capture, the question is no longer what happened on January 3, but whether the changes that followed amount to a democratic opening — or a recalibration of the same system under new leadership.(With inputs from Agencies, CNN, The Strait Times)
