Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is expected to win Sunday’s snap election with a landslide, it is predicted.The Conservative leader is expected to hand 316 of the 465 seats in the House of Commons to the Liberal Democrats, the party’s best-ever result. The ruling bloc controls 352 seats together with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), giving it an overwhelming majority in parliament.NHK data showed Isin expected to win 36 seats, while the opposition won a total of 113 seats.Once formally confirmed, the results will give Gaoyi broad scope to push its conservative agenda. With a two-thirds majority, she will also be well-positioned to pursue her long-term goal of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution.If the coalition secures at least 261 seats, the threshold for a so-called “stable majority”, it can take control of parliamentary committees, streamlining the passage of legislation including key budget proposals.An absolute majority of 310 seats would allow the coalition to surpass its current lack of majority in the upper house.If the polls prove wrong and she loses her House majority, Takaichi said she would resign.Takaichi, 64, called for early elections to capitalize on her strong personal support after taking over the leadership of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party late last year. Despite her popularity among voters, her party has governed Japan for much of the past seven decades but has recently been troubled by funding irregularities and religion-related scandals.She dissolved parliament just three months into her term, hoping to gain a new mandate and stabilize the party before her support began to decline – making the election a high-stakes political gamble.”This election involves major policy shifts, especially economic and fiscal policies and strengthening security policies,” she said in a television interview after the election results were announced.”There’s a lot of opposition to these policies… If we have public support, then we really have to go all out to address these issues.”
The LDP’s resurgence under Gaoshi’s leadership
The projected victory contrasts with the LDP’s recent troubles. Under its two predecessors, the party lost its parliamentary majority amid corruption scandals and rising costs of living.In 2024, the Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in both houses of Congress, and its decades-long alliance with Komeito collapsed. In this election, the Komeito Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan joined forces to form the largest opposition group in the House of Representatives.Despite facing a more unified opposition, Takaichi’s personal popularity appears to have revived the party’s fortunes, with government approval ratings mostly hovering above 70%.
The far right remains on the fringes
The far-right Sanseito party fielded a record 190 candidates and is expected to increase its number of seats in parliament. Opinion polls suggest it could win about 15 seats, up from just two.The result would build on last year’s upper house election, when the party broke through with a strong warning against foreigners and attracted significant support from young voters.Sanseito seeks to connect with US President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. While it is expected to remain a small party, its emergence has helped shift political discourse in Japan to the right, a trend seen in other advanced democracies.
Who is Takaichi Sanae?
Japan’s first democratically elected female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is an ultraconservative leader known for her hard-line views and unique personal style. A self-described admirer of Margaret Thatcher, she has long aspired to become Japan’s “Iron Lady” and promised to “work, work, work” after taking office in October.A staunch conservative, Gao Yi opposed same-sex marriage, legislation allowing married couples to use different surnames and the idea of a female succession to the throne. Although she became an iconoclastic figure herself, she always supported women taking on more traditional roles in society and family life.She strongly supports defense and is committed to maintaining a close alliance with the United States while strengthening Japan’s own military capabilities. She has developed a very cordial relationship with US President Donald Trump, meeting with him just days after he was inaugurated.A motorcycle enthusiast and heavy metal drummer, Takaichi has become a pop culture phenomenon, especially among younger voters. Her appeal is driven as much by her image as by her policies, with her personal items and catchphrases going viral on social media and a large following, although critics point to her limited promotion of women in her cabinet.
Tensions rise in China under Gao Yi
Japan’s relations with China, its largest trading partner, have become increasingly tense after Takaichi said in November that Japan might intervene militarily if China tried to seize self-ruled Taiwan by force.Takaichi, who was seen as a China hawk before taking office, made the comments just two weeks after becoming prime minister, fueling voters’ concerns about her push for a significant increase in defense spending.In television interviews, she has largely dodged questions about how to fund soaring military spending or how her administration plans to ease diplomatic tensions with Beijing.Analysts say her shift to the right is unlikely to fundamentally change the direction of Japan’s broader foreign policy. Takahiro is expected to maintain a stable relationship with South Korea due to shared concerns about security threats from North Korea and China. A key election promise – to suspend the 8% food sales tax – is aimed at helping households cope with rising prices. However, the pledge has unsettled investors, who are worried about how the policy will be funded, given Japan’s heavy government debt burden.Critics, including businesses, are skeptical that increased spending and tax cuts can revive the flagging economy.Ritsuko Ninomiya, a Tokyo voter, told the BBC: “People want their lives to become better and more comfortable because we are used to no inflation. [costs rising]… So people are very worried. I think we need a long-term solution, not a short-term fix. “During the campaign, Takaichi pushed to tighten immigration rules, review foreign ownership of Japanese land, and address foreigners’ delinquent taxes and health insurance.Critics say the policies risk causing anxiety and division in a country where only 3% of the population is foreign.Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Takaichi on the “milestone victory” and said the friendship between Japan and India can reach “even greater heights”.U.S. President Donald Trump also congratulated Takaichi, calling her a “well-respected and very popular” leader.”I wish you great success in passing your ‘Conservatives, Peace Through Strength’ agenda,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.He added: “The wonderful people of Japan who voted with such enthusiasm will always have my strong support.”U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant called it a “major victory” and said “when Japan is strong, the United States is strong in Asia.” People across Japan braved heavy snow and bad weather to vote in the country’s first midwinter election in 36 years. The Ministry of Transport said that as of Sunday morning, 37 train lines and 58 ferry routes were closed and 54 flights were cancelled. Tokyo received a rare snowfall as voters headed to the polls.
, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is on course to win Sunday’s snap election by a landslide, accord.){kind=link}