Iran: Does Donald Trump’s triumphal tone on Iran face a reality check?

Two plane accidents puncture the tone of victory

A U.S. fighter jet was shot down in Iran on Friday, the first such incident since the war began. One crew member was rescued, but another remains missing, prompting a U.S. search and rescue operation.In a separate incident, Iranian state media claimed that a U.S. A-10 attack plane crashed in the Persian Gulf after being hit by Iranian defenses. The Associated Press quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying it was unclear whether the plane crashed or was shot down.Just days ago, Trump said Iran “has no air defense equipment,” making these incidents particularly damaging to his efforts to demonstrate full military dominance.Trump made no public appearances on Friday as setbacks on the battlefield cast doubt on his previous depictions of victory in the war.

Of the conflicts Trump chooses to initiate, “only the United States”

Trump’s signature style of politics — based on certainty, personal authority and unilateral action — is clashing with the unpredictability of war.Trump’s decision to enter the war alongside Israel without consulting Congress or key allies has left Washington increasingly isolated.Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer summed up the dilemma in an interview with The Associated Press: “You can be the most confident and aggressive president in the world, but you can’t control what happens overseas.”As the war enters its sixth week, this tension becomes even more apparent.

Trump struggles to drum up support, allies push back

Some traditional U.S. allies are now publicly distancing themselves from Washington’s decision to go to war.French President Emmanuel Macron said this week that the United States would “have a hard time complaining afterwards that the actions they chose to take alone were not supported”.“This is not our action,” Macron said.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also refused to get involved in the conflict, despite harsh criticism from Trump. Instead, Britain and France are focused on helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting ends.John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser and now critic, said the administration made a “serious mistake” by not building international alliances before the war.“If you don’t build alliances before the war, it’s very difficult to do that when you’re in the middle of it,” Bolton said.Still, Bolton warned European leaders against opposing Trump simply out of frustration with his lack of consultation, calling such an approach “childish and willful.”

Pressure in Strait of Hormuz deepens economic impact

Trump has also worked to contain the broader economic consequences of the conflict.Iran has taken action to essentially close the Strait of Hormuz, hampering the global flow of oil and natural gas, disrupting energy shipments and driving up U.S. gasoline prices.The war is destabilizing economies around the world as Iran targets Gulf energy infrastructure and tightens control over oil and gas shipments through the strait.Trump has reportedly sought help from world leaders to reopen the vital waterway, but the offers have been rejected. Some allies want the fighting to end before the problem is resolved, while others have openly criticized Trump for the war he has chosen to wage.

Iran expresses conditional opening, mediation efforts continue

Despite the fighting, diplomatic channels have not been completely closed.Mediators from Pakistan, Türkiye and Egypt are still trying to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. The Associated Press cited two regional officials as saying a compromise was being sought to stop the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could pave the way for talks with Pakistan.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that Tehran “never refused to go to Islamabad” but stressed that Iran wanted “a final and lasting end to the illegal war that was imposed on us.”He also reiterated this position in another social media post.The broader regional picture of the latest developments in the war illustrates the extent to which the conflict has expanded.The United Arab Emirates said its air defense systems intercepted 23 ballistic missiles and 56 drones from Iran on Saturday. Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet is based, reported eight drone strikes in 24 hours, bringing the total since the war began to 188 missiles and 453 drones.Debris from intercepted drones damaged the facades of two buildings in Dubai, one of which belongs to US technology company Oracle. No injuries were reported.Iran has also signaled it will increase maritime pressure. Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf issued a veiled threat against the Bab el-Mandab Strait, another global shipping chokepoint. Any disruption there would force ships to detour around southern Africa, resulting in higher costs.

Trump’s broader go-it-alone style also faces limits at home

The Iran war reflects a broader pattern of the Trump presidency: act first, often alone, and assume that political power can overcome institutional resistance.Trump also said this week that it was “not necessary” for the White House ballroom project to win congressional approval despite the judge’s ruling. He signed an executive order creating a national list of certified eligible voters and limiting mail-in voting, even making an unprecedented appearance before the Supreme Court as his administration defended an executive order limiting birthright citizenship.But this strategy has also encountered obstacles at home. The Supreme Court struck down his sweeping tariff plan, Democrats quickly challenged his voting orders, and justices appeared skeptical of his efforts to curb birthright citizenship.During an Easter lunch at the White House, Trump jokingly discussed the limitations of his office.“I’m a king and I can’t get ballroom approval,” he said, drawing laughter from cabinet members and religious leaders. “I’ve done a lot of things. But if I were king, I could do more.”