Indian-origin investor’s H-1B prediction: If 10% of Indians stuck in US Green Card backlog return, India’s GDP could rise 1%
Indian-American entrepreneur Vivek Wadhwa said if Indians waiting for residency in the US go back to India as America First activists want them to, it will be India’s gain. India could get a major economic boost if skilled Indians caught in the US green-card backlog begin returning home, Wadhwa predicted, arguing that the return of even a fraction of them could add 1% to India’s GDP over the next two to three years.Wadhwa made the prediction in a post on X while discussing the growing debate over H-1B visas and the possibility of skilled Indian workers leaving the US amid tightening immigration policies. The US administration moved towards eliminating the 60-day grace period for H-1B visa holders in the latest move. If this proposal becomes a rule, then H-1B visa holders and their family members will be out of legal status in the US the day the H-1B visa holder loses their job. Now, H-1B visa holders get 60 days to plan for the future after layoff but in the new proposal, the last day in the job would also be the last day in the US.“With all the debates about H-1Bs and sending skilled Indians back, here’s my prediction: this could add 1% to India’s GDP over the next 2–3 years alone,” Wadhwa wrote.Wadhwa said more than one million Indians are stuck in America’s green-card backlog. If just 10% of them return to India, he estimates that would mean around 100,000 highly skilled workers coming back with their savings, professional experience and networks.“Imagine if 20% or 30% returned,” he wrote, suggesting the economic impact could be considerably larger.Wadhwa’s argument is that a reversal of that migration could give India access not only to skilled workers but also to people who have spent years building careers in the US and accumulated capital, business connections and knowledge of the American market.“The flow is already in reverse,” Wadhwa wrote, describing the potential movement of Indian professionals back to their home country as a possible turning point.He argued that India could turn what is being viewed as a setback for Indian immigrants in the US into an economic opportunity. “America’s loss could become India’s biggest economic gain,” he wrote.
H-1B debate adds to uncertainty
Wadhwa’s comments come as the US immigration system faces renewed debate over H-1B visas and employment-based immigration.He has previously called for the H-1B programme to be scrapped and replaced with a new skilled-immigration system, arguing that the programme has been undermined by labour arbitrage, so-called body shops and long green-card backlogs.In August, Wadhwa argued that the US should move away from a system that leaves skilled immigrants dependent on employers and instead create an immigration framework that gives talented workers greater freedom to change jobs and launch companies.His latest post takes that argument a step further, suggesting that restrictions and uncertainty in the US could accelerate a reverse brain drain, with experienced Indian professionals choosing to build their careers and businesses in India.
But will these Indians return?
Many social media users argued that Wadhwa’s premise is wrong, as Indians stuck in the US GreeCard queue would prefer to explore European countries instead of going back to India. “It’s a mistaken belief. Who would come here with taxes so high , poor water and air quality and C grade civic infrastructure. I have engaged with lot of them and they all are planning to shift to some European country / Canada / Australia,” one wrote.
