After a brief post-pandemic rebound, population growth in the United States has slowed sharply, and the stagnation has been most pronounced in New York. The latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show the state added just 1,008 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, effectively leveling off after years of volatility caused by the pandemic, surges in immigration and interstate departures. At the heart of the economic slowdown is immigration. A “historic decline” in international net migration has reduced the number of new immigrants across the country, and the decline has been particularly pronounced in New York, a state long characterized by immigration. Meanwhile, domestic outmigration continues to send residents to other states, although the number of births only weakly offsets the number of deaths.
Nationwide economy slows, country comes to a standstill
According to the Census Bureau year 2025 expectedBetween July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the U.S. population increased by 1.8 million people, or 0.5%. That marked a sharp slowdown from the previous year, when the country added 3.2 million people and grew by 1.0%, the fastest annual growth rate since 2006. It is also the slowest growth rate since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, when population growth fell to a record low of 0.2% in 2021. “The slowdown in U.S. population growth is primarily due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million between July 2024 and June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division director for estimates and projections at the U.S. Census Bureau. “Births and deaths have remained relatively stable compared with the previous year, and the sharp decline in net international migration is largely responsible for the slowdown in growth we are seeing today.“ This national scene was amplified in New York. From July 2024 to July 2025, state population It increased by just 0.005% to 1,008 people, for a total of just over 20 million people. Based on the revised baseline, New York state still has lost about 120,000 residents to 201,000 residents since the 2020 census count of 20,203,696 people, the largest net population decline of any state since 2020.
People arrive in Times Square during New Year’s Eve celebrations on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, in New York City. (AP Photo/Eduardo Muñoz Alvarez)
Only seven states have experienced net population declines since the last census: West Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Hawaii, Illinois, California and New York. On a proportional basis, New York is down about 1% since 2020, outpacing declines in Illinois and California of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. Only West Virginia and Hawaii experienced larger census-era population losses, with both states down 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, growth is concentrated elsewhere. Since 2020, Texas has added about 2.6 million residents and Florida has added about 1.9 million residents. In the most recent year alone, Texas added 391,243 residents and Florida added 196,680 residents.
Immigration: From historic highs to steep decline
New York’s recent demographic changes depend on immigration. For generations, people have come to New York City for its large job market, established immigrant community and support systems, including its housing rights policies, which have long made the city a first stop for those seeking opportunity, even as rising costs are beginning to put a strain on that tradition. In the two years since April 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic ended, the state’s number of residents initially dropped by about 368,000, before the state saw a surge in foreign immigrants. Revised census data shows New York welcomed more than 290,637 foreign immigrants in 2023-24, the highest single-year total in at least a century. In 2024, 207,167 immigrants will move to the state; in 2023, 211,383; and in 2022, 121,570 people will move to the state. This compares with just 28,772 new arrivals in 2021, an outlier affected by pandemic restrictions.
New York immigration soared to a historic peak in 2023-24 before falling sharply in 2024-25.
But from July 2024 to July 2025, the inflow dropped sharply. About 96,000 immigrants moved to New York state during that period, down two-thirds from the previous year and the lowest inflow in four years. The decline mirrors a national trend. Nationally, net international migration fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million during the same 12-month period. Several factors are at play. Border crossings to surge in 20233.2 million people were recorded at the U.S. southern border. Governors like Greg Abbott in Texas and Doug Ducey in Arizona are moving thousands of migrants from the Texas-Mexico border to sanctuary cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles starting in 2022, which could lead to a surge in the migrant population in 2022-24.But advocates say affordability pressures and practical barriers are forcing some newcomers to leave. Sky-high rents, a tight housing market, limited affordable housing and, for many newcomers, delays in obtaining legal work authorization make it difficult to put down roots. “I’m hearing directly from a lot of people that the cost of living here is too high and these new New Yorkers are coming here and being sent here and living in shelters and trying to make a living,” Tania Mattos, executive director of Unlocal, told the New York Times.Unlike previous years, finding a job without a Social Security number or work authorization card has become more difficult, she added. While many want to stay, some migrants are actually forced to leave for more affordable areas. Often, this means moving to non-sanctuary cities where they face a higher risk of harassment or detention by immigration enforcement agents. “They have to move to a place like Idaho or somewhere else that’s more economically advantageous for them,” Matos said. Economists warn of the economic consequences of a continued slowdown. “New York cannot afford to lose immigrants from our communities and our economy,” said Fiscal Policy Institute economist Emily Eisner. “International immigration into New York State constitutes a significant driver of the state’s economic growth. Without this annual influx of immigrants, New York State’s population tends to decline, threatening the state’s tax base and economic strength.” Eisner added: “Immigration provides essential labor to the economy, such as construction jobs, food services, health care, child care and home care. Without significant immigration into the state, prices for these essential goods and services will skyrocket and the economy will shrink.” David Kallick, director of the Immigration Institute, echoed these concerns, telling the City: “When new immigrants arrive from all over the country and around the world, they bring a constant flow of new energy and new ideas.” “Shutting down the generators will have a negative impact on all of us. Especially as the state’s population ages, this new energy source will be greatly missed.” As of 2024, approximately 4.6 million New York State residents are foreign-born, approximately 3.1 million of whom live in New York City.
Domestic population outflow and aging situation
Even as the number of international visitors increases, New York continues to lose residents to other parts of the country. Census data shows that New York lost 137,000 residents to other U.S. states between July 2024 and July 2025. In the five years since 2020, the state’s cumulative domestic immigrant loss has exceeded 1 million, second only to California in absolute numbers. Relative to its population base, New York State’s domestic population decline rate remains the highest of any state in the 2020s. In the most recent year, overall migration (including international and internal movements) resulted in a net loss of 42,000 people. This was slightly offset by “natural increase”: 203,000 births minus 160,000 deaths, an increase of 43,000. In fact, the birth rate almost perfectly balances the immigration losses, leaving the state in a near-perfect population balance, but only just right.
New York’s population remains flat as births (203,000) in 2024-25 nearly offset deaths (160,000) and net immigration losses.
Experts say much of the population loss is concentrated in aging, rural counties in the North, while immigration losses are more pronounced in New York City and its suburbs. The Census Bureau’s latest estimates do not yet include a county-level breakdown. The risk of another economic downturn looms as border controls and deportations tighten, international migration slows further, and housing markets in southern states that attract many former New Yorkers thaw. For centuries, New York has defined itself as a gateway city. European settlers arrived in 1624; generations of immigrants followed. Today’s data shows that without continued immigration, the state’s demographic and economic foundation will become more unstable.
