US President Donald Trump has agreed to authorize Ukraine to build its own Patriot missile interceptors, announcing the move at a Nato summit in Ankara in another stunning reversal of his earlier skepticism towards Kyiv.
“We’re going to give you a license to make Patriots. That’s cool. That way, you can’t complain that we didn’t give them enough licenses,” Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting on the sidelines of the summit. “It’s a defensive weapon and I like it better than an offensive weapon,” he added.
Trump gave no details on how the licensing arrangement would work or when production would begin.
Why Ukraine desperately needs patriots
The Patriot system is one of the few systems in the world that can shoot down ballistic missiles, and it is also the only system in Ukraine that can shoot down ballistic missiles.
These missiles travel at high speeds and descend at steep angles, making them difficult to intercept.
Russia has dramatically escalated ballistic missile attacks in recent months, killing dozens in Kiev in the past week alone.
Zelenskiy formally asked Washington in late May for permission to license production of Patriot vehicles. Kiev has successfully fended off most Russian drone attacks over the course of the four-year war, but ballistic missiles remain what Zelensky said was Moscow’s “last major advantage,” according to the BBC.
Ukraine’s air force said it faced a “serious shortage” of interceptors, a gap that was exposed when it failed to shoot down 23 ballistic missiles launched by Russia in an attack on Sunday, killing more than 20 people.
Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia, warned that this shortage is why licenses alone may not be enough.
“Giving Ukraine permission to produce Patriot missiles would be a big deal if it happened. But Ukraine needs missile defense interceptors now and can’t wait to produce them in the future,” he told Reuters.
Trump said some interceptors would be immediately available as Ukraine builds its own capabilities, but he was vocal about the restrictions. “We have the Patriots, but we don’t have that many. We need them ourselves.”
He was more optimistic about Ukraine’s manufacturing prospects: “I think they can produce it very quickly. Once we explain it, we will bring the company here. You work with the company. They have a strong ability to produce weapons, fairly sophisticated weapons,” the US president said.
Can Ukraine really build them?
Patriot technology is tightly controlled by Washington, and no country can produce the system without U.S. approval. US company Raytheon Technologies built the core system, while Lockheed Martin built the advanced PAC-3 interceptor.
Trump’s proposed license would extend that permission to Ukraine.
But experts doubt whether production can actually take place on Ukrainian soil. Military expert Ivan Stupak told the BBC: “Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot produce this type of advanced munitions because it is really sophisticated, sophisticated equipment.”
Stupak believes that any facility is more likely to be located in Europe, also because it is a “security” issue, since anywhere in Ukraine could be hit by Russia.
This will fit into wider plans already underway. The United States is establishing a PAC-3 maintenance center EuropeAlthough the host country has not yet officially announced it.
What is the Patriot system and how does it work?
Patriot – short for “Phaseded Array Tracking Radar for Target Interception” – is one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. It is mobile and designed to detect, track and destroy incoming missiles and aircraft before they reach their targets. The battery typically includes a radar, command post, transmitter, generator and support vehicles, with the radar capable of detecting threats up to 150 kilometers away.
According to Reuters, Patriots first entered combat during the 1991 Gulf War and again during the 2003 Iraq War.
In operation, the radar detects an incoming missile or aircraft, the command center calculates its speed, direction and flight path, and fires interceptors to destroy the threat before it reaches the protected area.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank, Patriot fires two main interceptor types: the PAC-2, which destroys targets through explosion and fragmentation, and the newer PAC-3, which uses “hit-to-kill” technology – ramming directly into the target at high speed rather than exploding near the target.
Why are interceptors so expensive?
Patriot is one of the most expensive air defense systems in the world. The new battery is expected to cost more than $1 billion, with batteries and equipment costing about $400 million and missiles costing $690 million. The latest PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) interceptors cost about $4.1 million each, with the older PAC-2 missiles about half that price. The cost means operators reserve interceptors for high-value threats such as ballistic missiles or advanced aircraft.
CSIS noted in a report that launching $4 million worth of missiles at cheap drones is rarely considered cost-effective.
Why can’t the United States simply hand over more?
To put it simply, the production speed is slow.
The U.S. Department of Defense expects to produce about 600 Patriot missiles annually, and Washington needs the system for its own defense. More than half of America’s Patriot stockpile is believed to have been used in the conflict with Iran, the BBC reported.
Wars in Ukraine and West Asia have driven up global demand for Patriots faster than existing factories can meet them. Trump has repeatedly urged European allies to increase defense spending and buy more U.S. military equipment. June, President of the United States According to Reuters, the United States has invoked the Defense Production Act to increase domestic weapons production and shore up supply chains.
CSIS describes the Patriot system as one of the most in-demand air defense systems in the U.S. military, with only about 15 Patriot battalions (approximately 60 to 90 Patriot companies) in the entire U.S. arsenal. Moving batteries to Ukraine would cause direct harm to U.S. military readiness elsewhere.
What is Patriot used for? How does it perform?
More than 240 Patriot systems have been built worldwide and are currently operating in 18 countries, including the United States, Germany, Japan, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Israel, South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland.
Once licensed production continues, Ukraine will become the 19th. Demand has also increased in West Asia due to recent conflicts in the region. According to Reuters, Raytheon said its Patriot missiles have intercepted more than 150 ballistic missiles in combat since 2015.
Among similar systems, Israel’s Iron Dome is highly effective against rockets and drones, but less capable against advanced ballistic missiles. this us CSIS said it owns two Iron Dome batteries but has not yet transferred them to Ukraine, and Israel is believed to object to such transfers.
Reuters pointed out that another U.S. system, the THAAD system, has a target altitude much higher than the Patriot missile, while Ukraine’s NASA missile system mainly targets aircraft and cruise missiles rather than ballistic threats. This makes the Patriot one of the few systems capable of reliably intercepting high-speed ballistic missiles.
India does not have Patriot missile systems. Instead, it uses its own ballistic missile defense (BMD) program developed by the DRDO along with the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. Both can intercept ballistic missiles.
