Hosting Putin and Trump, China sends message – it is now dominant

Each visit has its own unique importance. U.S. President Donald Trump made his first state visit to Beijing since 2017. The visit comes at a time of tense relations between China and the United States, the United States is mired in war in the Middle East and a dramatic shift in foreign policy under Trump.

For Putin, this is his 25th official visit to China. This trip aims to further consolidate the China-Russia strategic alliance against the backdrop of global uncertainty. Putin is also keen to ensure China’s continued economic lifeline and diplomatic cover as the war with Ukraine drags on.

While the timing of the back-to-back visits shouldn’t be read too much – Moscow said there was “no connection” between the two – they do reveal deeper tectonic shifts in global politics.

Beijing’s confidence grows

First, it is clear that the United States is no longer the most important country in China’s strategic worldview—and Beijing is increasingly willing to make that clear.

This is evident from the posture and negotiation style between Xi Jinping and Trump. From his rather distant handshake to his dominant body language throughout the meeting, Xi sent a message: Washington’s ability to influence Beijing has been limited.

The modest outcome of their summit reinforced this dynamic. Trump left China without a formal agreement, press conference or joint communiqué. There was also no breakthrough on the Iran and Taiwan issues.

Meanwhile, Putin met with his “good old friend” Xi Jinping and signed about 20 agreements in areas ranging from trade to technology.

The most striking, if not disturbing, moment was Xi Jinping’s invocation of the “Thucydides Trap” during a meeting with Trump. This view holds that rising powers will inevitably threaten established powers and risk war.

Xi Jinping raised a sharp question:

Can China and the United States transcend the so-called “Thucydides Trap” and create a new paradigm for major-country relations?

Xi Jinping has used the concept before, but this time his forthrightness sends a warning: If the United States continues to rely on a containment strategy to counter China’s rise, it risks creating a major crisis.

In short, Beijing used Trump’s visit to convey confidence, autonomy and the fact that Washington is not the only capital that matters to China.

Russia has new uses for Beijing

Secondly, the equality of the Sino-Russian alliance has weakened, but the strategic depth has increased. Beijing is now using it to put pressure on U.S. leadership.

Last week, while strolling through the private gardens of the highly secretive Zhongnanhai leadership compound, Trump asked Xi whether he often took other world leaders there. Xi Jinping responded that such visits were “extremely rare,” but added that “Putin has been here.”

A naive reading of the exchange is that Xi simply noted the depth of his personal relationship with Putin. But in the current geopolitical context, it is also a subtle reminder to Trump that China’s “unrestricted” partnership with Russia is not just talk.

Beijing is signaling to Moscow that it remains a privileged strategic partner — and that China has options.

The deeper message: If Washington seeks to isolate China, Beijing can rely more heavily on its relationship with Moscow.

China doesn’t need to help Russia “win” in Ukraine to make this point. Importantly, Beijing has the ability to support Russia’s war effort through economic, diplomatic, and long-term technological and energy cooperation if it chooses.

Beijing’s influence now extends far beyond the Indo-Pacific and into Europe in ways that Washington cannot afford to ignore.

However, Xi did not provide Putin with everything he sought during the meeting.

As turmoil in the Middle East cuts off China’s access to Middle Eastern oil and gas, Moscow recognizes an opportunity to advance a new pipeline called Power of Siberia 2 to carry Russian gas to China.

While Putin and Xi “reached a general understanding” of the project’s parameters, a final agreement was not signed.

China now dominates

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Third, China now sees itself as a central node in great power politics.

For decades, the United States has been at the top of the “Grand Triangle,” balancing between China, the Soviet Union, and Russia.

Today, the geometry is flipped. Both Trump and Putin feel compelled to come to Beijing — seeking stability, reassurance and strategic signaling — even as they confront each other elsewhere.

China is not engaging in triangular diplomacy in the traditional sense. It is not an attempt to pit Washington and Moscow against each other. Instead, it positions itself as the center of the system: the place through which great power diplomacy must pass, even if the outcome is uncertain.

China is at the top of this arrangement not because it is the most powerful militarily or economically, but because it has the confidence to engage the United States and Russia on its own terms.

In this new landscape, great power politics is not centered on Washington. It increasingly passes through Beijing. SKS

SKS

This article was generated from automated news agency feeds without modifications to the text.