Go Gogoi, go away: Why Congress’s defeat in Assam portends deeper crisis

Gogoi’s defeat is not only a personal setback but also reflects a deeper turmoil in Assam politics, where legacies, identities and strategies collide and the Congress party fails to deliver.

Gogoi is not just another candidate in this election. He is the Congress party’s chief minister, its most high-profile activist and arguably its best hope of challenging Himanta Biswa Sarma’s dominance.As a three-term MP and former deputy leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, Gogoi has both experience and expectations. However, the verdict was different. Gogoi didn’t just lose. He lost to the BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami by a huge margin of 23,182 votes.His defeat also ended his attempt to shift from national to state politics, a move seen as crucial to the Congress party’s resurgence in Assam.After the defeat, Gaurav Gogoi said he takes “full moral responsibility”. “As the state Congress president, I take full moral responsibility. I am also grateful to our political workers for unleashing their full potential,” ANI quoted the Assam Congress chief as saying.“We accept the people’s mandate. We are grateful to those who voted for us and supported us. Congress will reach out to those who did not vote for us. We express our gratitude to the grassroots congressional staff who stand with us when we face problems. We’re seeing a new Congress,” he said.At the same time, he also hinted that the party was uneasy about the outcome.“People haven’t accepted the result yet. We thought the fight would be close. But the outcome is conceivable in many seats. On Saturday (May 9) we will call every newly elected MLA,” he added.

If Gogoi’s defeat was symbolic, Debabrata Sakia’s defeat in Nazira was equally significant. Saikia, who has been leader of the opposition since 2016, lost his family stronghold to Mayur Borgohain of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).The two defeats of Gogoi and Saikia, sons of the former chief minister, signaled a deeper erosion of the Congress party’s traditional base. Upper Assam has been the party’s bastion for decades. But by 2026, the fortress collapsed.The Congress lost almost all parliamentary seats in Gogoi’s Lok Sabha constituency, except Sivasagar, which was held by ally Akhil Gogoi. Another ally, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, was killed at Khowang.What remains is a narrower political footprint. The Congress won just 19 seats, down from 29 in 2021, with most of its victories coming in Muslim-majority constituencies. Its once broad-based coalition of support has shrunk into a more limited, regionally concentrated vote bank.

While the Congress struggled, the BJP-led NDA moved forward with surprising clarity. In the 126-member Assembly, the NDA won 102 seats, of which the BJP won 82 seats, breaking through the majority on its own for the first time in Assam.For Himanta, the victory reaffirmed his political dominance. He contested from Jalubari and retained his seat by a stunning margin of 89,434 votes.Sarma’s rise is one of the most important political shifts in Assam. After leaving Congress in 2015, he played a key role in expanding the BJP’s influence in the northeast. His leadership style, which combined welfare delivery with a sharp political message, reshaped the state’s electoral dynamics.

Why Gogoi’s strategy failed

The BJP refers to Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi as the “3G” trio, a label widely seen as politically charged.The movement also seeks to portray the Congress as a party aligned with “Miya” Muslims, a term given to Bengali-speaking migrant Muslims. This message was repeated and seemed to influence voters’ perceptions.That makes it harder for Congress to expand beyond Muslim-majority constituencies and regain the support of Assam’s indigenous communities, including the Ahom community to which Gogoi’s family belongs.There were many factors that contributed to Gogoi’s failure, some structural, some personal.A key challenge is the Congress party’s inability to reconnect with its traditional support base. The Ahom community, tea garden tribes and a section of Hindu voters were once the core of the Congress’ strength but have gradually shifted over the years.Another problem is that Gogoi is considered inaccessible. Many party workers and voters felt he wasn’t well-known locally enough during the campaign. In a state where grassroots participation is important, that sentiment hurts.His reliance on heritage and identity politics, particularly his Ahomian roots, also did not produce the desired results.

The delimitation exercise in 2023 has also played a crucial role in reshaping the political landscape of Assam.The number of Muslim-majority constituencies has been reduced from 35 to 22, significantly shrinking the congressional electoral space. While Muslims make up about 30% of Assam’s electorate, the roughly 7.5 million voters and their concentration in fewer seats have left the party politically isolated.

Congress’s coalition strategy is also being closely watched. Although the party formed a last-minute six-party coalition that included left and regional parties, it failed to create a unified and convincing alternative.Divisions within the opposition had helped the BJP in earlier elections. For example, in 2021, the opposition’s vote share was close to that of the NDA, but the split resulted in a huge seat gap.The election results prompted a re-examination of opposition coalition strategies, leadership choices and social propaganda.Despite attempts by regional allies to field younger, higher-profile candidates, including Gen Z faces such as Kunki Chowdhury and Gyanashree Bora, the experiment failed to translate into electoral results.Repeated election setbacks could deepen organizational fatigue within Congress and its allies. Veteran journalist Amarendra Deka noted that failures of this magnitude often trigger internal recriminations, leadership challenges and low morale among cadres, issues that the Congress has struggled to address in Assam over the years.Even by 2026, despite attempts at coordination, the alliance lacks consistency and mass appeal.

personal attack

The campaign also made personal accusations. Salma has repeatedly targeted Gaurav Gogoi, blaming his wife Elizabeth Colebourn, who was born in England.He claimed that a Pakistani company hired her and later transferred her to India, where her salary was allegedly paid by a Pakistani national. Sarma also accused Gogoi of secretly visiting Pakistan in 2013 without notifying authorities, claiming he may have received “some kind of training” there.Furthermore, he alleged that Gogoi’s wife collected information about India and passed it on to Pakistan while working for a company, and claimed that she visited Pakistan nine times while she was associated with two Indian organizations.

The scale of congressional failure

A resounding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in Assam has pushed the opposition to one of its weakest positions in recent memory, raising serious questions about its future political relevance in the state. IThe NDA surged to a record 102 seats in the 126-member Assembly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning just 82 seats, enough to secure a majority on its own for the first time in Assam.In contrast, the opposition alliance led by the Congress Party suffered serious setbacks. The Congress won just 19 seats, down from 29 in 2021, while its ally Raijor Dal secured only two seats. AIUDF and Trinamool CongressEnter separately and win two and one spot respectively.Political observers believe the opposition has failed to produce a leader capable of matching the political dominance of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.Despite the high profile of leaders like Gogoi, Rajo Dal’s Akhil Gogoi and BJP chief Lulingyoti Gogoi, the alliance lacks a unified mass appeal strong enough to counter the BJP’s aggressive and disciplined campaign machinery.

The beginning of Gogoi’s politics

Gaurav Gogoi began his political career by winning the Kaliabor elections in 2014, defeating Mrinal Kumar Saikia of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by 93,000 votes. He consolidated his position in 2019, winning re-election defeating Asom Gana Parishad’s Moni Madhab Mahanta by a margin of 2,09,994 votes.In 2024, he moved to Jorhat, defeating the BJP’s Topon Kumar Gogoi, and received an enthusiastic response from the public, with supporters calling him “Amar Lolla” (our son), reflecting his growing connection with the people.Gogoi served as the deputy leader of the Congress party from 2020 to 2024 and was subsequently appointed as the president of the Assam Congress Committee in 2025.Since 2016, the Congress party has lost three consecutive parliamentary elections and its seats have been decreasing year by year. The party faces a difficult reconstruction work in Assam. If the opposition hopes to remain electorally relevant until 2031, it needs to urgently rethink its political message, rebuild its grassroots structures and build wider social coalitions.Failing that, Assam is likely to witness a stronger consolidation of the BJP’s dominance and the opposition being reduced to a fragmented force fighting for political space.