Democrats’ ad plan shows party is on offense

WASHINGTON — A major outside group supporting Democrats’ efforts to regain control of the House of Representatives is setting aside $272 million for television and digital advertising ahead of the November midterm elections, with most of the money going to seats currently held by Republicans.

The House Majority Political Action Committee on Thursday outlined its plan to pour money into the most competitive races in media markets from Miami to Phoenix to Philadelphia that will determine whether President Trump can retain the Republican majority. Democrats are trying to capitalize on Trump’s declining job approval ratings and public dissatisfaction with inflation and the economy.

The ad spending plan provides a roadmap for Democrats’ strategy to take back the House and its top goals six months before the midterm elections, as well as spending plans in areas that typically lean toward Republicans. Super PACs are not legally allowed to coordinate with House Democratic campaign arms, but the two entities are expected to focus on about three dozen districts in an effort to expand the territory amid sweeping voter rebuke of Republican lawmakers.

“With Trump’s approval ratings falling significantly across the board, especially on the economy and cost of living, it gives us an opportunity to communicate more deeply with voters who have traditionally voted Republican or not voted at all and are willing to take a chance on Democrats,” said Mike Smith, chairman of the House Majority Political Action Committee.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Republican leadership, has not yet specified its advertising goals.

Trump and congressional Republicans are struggling to maintain their slim majority in the House, currently balanced at 217 Republicans and 212 Democrats, as well as one Republican-aligned independent.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 16 seats as “undecided,” 13 held by Republicans and three by Democrats, suggesting they could be tipped. An additional 16 seats are considered competitive, with 12 leaning Democratic and four leaning Republican.

Most ad bookings (nearly 80%) are concentrated in Republican-controlled seats, reflecting the committee’s more optimistic outlook, which has set aside about half of its ads in 2024 to protect seats aligned with Democrats. TV and digital bookings across 68 media markets were up nearly 50% from the group’s 2024 bookings of $186 million.

Some of this year’s reservations include:

Nearly $20 million was spent in Florida, the first time the PAC has retained advertising in the state since the 2020 election cycle. It covers about $9 million in the Miami market, targeting Republican Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez; $6.6 million in the Tampa area for races against Republican Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Laurel Lee; and $3.9 million in the Orlando area, focusing on embattled Republican Rep. Cory Mills, who faces calls to be ousted from the House. Nearly $13 million is allocated to the Philadelphia area, which includes a suburban seat held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a rare Republican-held district won by Kamala Harris in 2024. The PAC also set aside more than $3 million each in Harrisburg and Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, where Democrats hope to defeat Republican Reps. Scott Perry and Rob Bresnahan, respectively. The Harlingen, Texas, media market is approximately $13 million, covering South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and involved in three competitive House races. The nearly $11 million in Iowa money was focused on Republican Reps. Zach Nunn, who represents the Des Moines area, and Maryannette Miller-Meeks, of eastern Iowa. More than $7.6 million was spent in Phoenix media markets, including Republican Rep. David Schweikert’s open race for governor in a suburban district and Republican Rep. Eli Crane’s open race for a northeastern Arizona seat. The Denver-area allocation of more than $7 million comes amid Democratic hopes to unseat Republican freshman Rep. Gabe Evans, who narrowly won election in 2024 in the city’s northern suburbs.

The ad reservations also show where Democrats plan to play defense. The committee has set aside more than $8 million in Maine’s three media markets to bolster the open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, one of the nation’s largest swing districts. The committee also earmarked another $8 million for advertising around districts held by North Carolina Democratic Rep. Don Davis.

Super PACs often reserve ads early in the campaign cycle to lock in the lowest rates. The bookings do not include the New York-New Jersey metro area, which Smith said will come later because rates in the nation’s most expensive media markets typically don’t change.

Write to Ken Thomas: ken.thomas@wsj.com