New Delhi: bjpThe BJP’s overwhelming victory in a series of assembly polls and its first win in West Bengal with more than two-thirds of seats, coupled with its rising support in the Union House, will all but allow the party to decide the terms of next year’s presidential election after losing its majority in the Lok Sabha polls, raising questions about its dominance since 2014.Its overwhelming dominance in allied assemblies in large states such as Maharashtra, Bengal and Bihar, which are second only to UP in the presidential electoral college, will effectively offset the losses it has suffered in LS, which has seen its votes fall from 303 seats in 2024 to 240 in 2024. All elected members of parliament and parliament (excluding nominated legislators) make up the Electoral College. Parliament and assemblies have equal voting rights, but while each MP’s vote has the same value (700 votes in 2022), the weight of MLA votes is determined by the size of the population represented by their assembly (according to the 1971 Census).The number of votes for the Uttar Pradesh MLA is 208, which is almost 30 times that of the Sikkim MLA, who will have 7 votes by 2022. That number is likely to remain roughly the same next year because census numbers are a constant and so is the strength of parliament unless there is a vacancy. The presence of the J&K Assembly, which was dissolved in 2018 and was not part of the last presidential election, will be a factor, albeit a minor one.The drop in LS vote count reduced the BJP’s electoral college vote tally by 44,100 votes, while the 2022 Electoral College tally stood at 10,86,431 votes. A poor performance in the assembly polls could undermine the BJP’s authority to dictate terms, even with allies, as was the case in previous governments when the major parties (BJP or Congress) lacked a majority.After the LS polls, when the BJP relied on TDP and JD(U) to break through the 272-vote mark to gain a majority, the opposition parties were quick to call the two regional parties a “crutch” for their survival and predicted that the government would soon collapse, claiming that the results would be an inflection point in a strong run since 2014 and that the assembly polls would bring more grim news.For more than two years, the BJP has been doing pretty well.
UP holds key position in Prez polls with vote weight of over 83,800 MLAs
The Electoral College consists of all elected members of parliament and parliament (excluding nominated legislators). Parliament and assemblies have equal voting rights, but while each MP’s vote has the same value (700 votes in 2022), the weight of MLA votes is determined by the size of the population represented by their assembly (according to the 1971 Census).The number of votes for the Uttar Pradesh MLA is 208, which is almost 30 times that of the Sikkim MLA, who will have 7 votes by 2022. That number is likely to remain roughly the same next year because census numbers are a constant and so is the strength of parliament unless there is a vacancy.The fall in LS vote count reduced the PPP’s electoral vote tally by 44,100 votes, taking the total 2022 Electoral College vote tally to 10,86,431 votes. A poor performance in parliamentary polls could undermine its authority to decide terms, even with allies.After the LS polls, when the BJP relied on the TDP and JD(U) to break through the 272-vote mark to gain a majority, the opposition party was quick to call the two regional parties a “crutch” for its survival and predicted that the government would soon collapse, claiming that the result would be an inflection point in its strong campaign since 2014.For more than two years, the BJP has been doing pretty well. It defied the odds to win Haryana comprehensively, and the NDA’s advantage in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly has surged to 237 from over 150 during the last presidential election, and from 125 to 202 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The party now has 207 MLAs as against 77 MLAs in West Bengal. Ahead of the presidential election next July, the most important is UP as it has over 83,800 votes in the Electoral College.
