April polls to test if BJP can win ‘unfriendly’ territory

NEW DELHI: If the assembly polls since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reaffirm the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party and dampen the hopes of its rivals buoyed by the LS polls, a fresh electoral battle will test the party’s mettle and determine whether it can harness its momentum to make new inroads in areas so far considered least hospitable to its proposals. The poll comes as the opposition launches a concerted attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government over a trade deal with the United States, energy concerns over the crisis in West Asia and electoral roll maneuvers, and the election will provide a window into popular sentiment. The BJP will go to the polls with confidence in Assam, which has been in power since 2016, and with varying degrees of hope in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and especially West Bengal, three states it has never ruled. Regional parties have proven to be tough resisters not only to the Congress but also to the BJP, whose two most vocal critics are CM Mamata Banerjee Bengal’s CM MK Stalin and TN’s CM MK Stalin are in competition in this round of polls. The BJP is in power in only one of the four poll-bound states, while it is part of the ruling coalition in the poll-bound union territory of Puducherry. Outside Assam, the BJP has its highest interests in neighboring Bengal and is a direct challenger to the TMC, while the party has taken the lead in forming an alliance under the leadership of the AIADMK to counter the DMK-led group in TN. In Kerala, the electoral battle is mainly between the current CPM-led LDF and the Congress-United Front, but the BJP, which won nearly 17% of the vote share in 2024, is seen as the X factor affecting the final outcome. As usual, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led the BJP’s pre-election campaign by combining the launch of development schemes with political rallies in all these states, with Bengal being his last stop and he addressed a rally in Kolkata on Saturday. The BJP believes that its movement around Hindutva consciousness has taken root in the state amid fears of infiltration and the TMC’s alleged pro-Muslim politics and tyranny, and will help make up for the organizational machinery it may lack in countering its rivals’ well-oiled networks. The prime minister’s attack on Bengal’s chief minister, saying she is working to reduce Hindus to a minority in the state, was sharper than the “appeasement” accusations the BJP usually levels against her. Mamata has been blocking the BJP since coming to power in 2011 after surprising with its performance in the 2019 LS elections, when the BJP won 18 seats to the TMC’s best-ever 22 seats. However, its steady 38-39% vote share in the past few polls has provided the BJP with a launch pad to defeat her seriously and firmly. Led by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has turned the so-called Bengal infiltration issue into a poll issue in the northeastern state, marrying it with local demands.