Amazon fires peaked during the 2024 drought. A year later, the area burned reached its lowest level since records began in 1985
Amazon forest fires peaked during a severe drought in 2024, but just a year later the total area burned fell to the lowest level since records began in 1985, Euronews reported.Data from environmental monitoring network MapBiomas shows that 3.1 million hectares of land burned in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025. The historic low marks a sharp reversal from 2024, when an unprecedented drought sparked widespread man-made fires that swept through the world’s largest rainforest, destroying swathes of carbon-absorbing trees and wildlife.The dramatic change stems from changing weather patterns, declining deforestation rates and increased community awareness following last year’s forest destruction.MapBiomas reporting coordinator and geographer Ane Alencar told AFP the decline was “unusual”.Unusual weather played a direct role in putting out the fire. A delay in the 2024-2025 rainy season has shortened the time it usually takes to clear land for agriculture with fire. Alenka explained that this delay hinders “the ideal window for burning in certain areas.”Fires used to clear land are often exacerbated by illegal practices such as unauthorized mining. However, the severe damage caused by 2024 caused a strong psychological response in the local community, prompting residents to take quick action to prevent and contain new outbreaks.According to MapBiomas, this community response helped stem years of expanding fire activity, returning levels of burned land in Brazil to historically low levels. While the Cerrado savanna in central Brazil continues to burn at its usual pace, nationwide, the area burned has reached its smallest footprint since 2018.
Amazon forest fires (AP Photo/Edmar Barros)
Political commitment and deforestation reduction
The decline in the number of fires coincides with a decline in deforestation rates in the Amazon. Reducing tree clearing can reduce dry woody debris that contributes to massive forest fires.Protecting the Amazon is crucial to global climate goals because its dense vegetation absorbs large amounts of greenhouse gases.“The world has no climate security without a protected Amazon,” left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told the COP27 climate summit, adding that Brazil would “do everything possible to achieve zero deforestation and biome degradation.”Since taking power after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, President Lula has made forest protection a core policy goal, pledging to end deforestation by 2030. Under Bolsonaro, forest destruction has surged, reaching 9,762 square kilometers in 2019 alone, a 30% increase in one year.At the time, Adriana Ramos of the Institute for Socio-Environmental Studies noted that “Jair Bolsonaro’s rule as president of Brazil has seen the greatest reversal in social and environmental protection in our country’s history.”By comparison, deforestation fell by a third during Lula’s first six months in office, and by April 2023, deforestation was down 68% from the previous year. Data for the first quarter of 2026 shows deforestation rates are at their lowest levels in a decade.Despite these environmental gains, President Lula has been criticized by environmental activists for his support of large-scale offshore oil exploration projects near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Super El Niño threatens future progress
Progress made in 2025 faces direct threats from changes in Pacific ocean temperatures.Environmental scientists warn that a potential “super El Niño” weather event could trigger another severe drought in South America, quickly reversing recent gains.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast released in March showed a 62% chance of an El Niño event in the summer.“If an El Niño forms, its potential strength remains highly uncertain, with a one-in-three chance of a ‘strong’ El Niño occurring between October and December 2026,” NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said.El Niño occurs when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, causing warm surface waters to build up along the coast of South America. This warming prevents cooler water from rising to the surface, changing global weather patterns and raising global temperatures.Because the moisture content in the air increases by about 7% for every 1°C increase in temperature, El Niño can cause heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas, as well as severe heat waves and droughts in the tropics.Alenca said that in the Amazon, a strong El Niño could lead to “a longer dry season and a greater risk of forest fires.”Whether Brazil can sustain historically low fire levels will depend largely on weather conditions and political stability later this year, as President Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive term in October elections.
