With 15 games left in the league, LSG and MI have missed out on the playoffs, while DC are barely hanging on. RCB, SRH and GT will be too bad to make it to the playoffs from now on, while PBKS are also still in a good position to make the playoffs despite Monday’s loss. In terms of points, CSK and RR have an even better chance of finishing in the top four, even if tied. KKR’s chances are slim. There are 32,768 possible outcome combinations left, so none of the eight remaining combinations in the game have yet been determined.
Let’s look at the probabilities:
- RCB has an 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four points (including a possible tie for one or more of those spots), and a 59.4% chance of finishing in the top two
- SRH’s chance of finishing in the top four on points is only slightly lower at 88.1%, while their chance of finishing in the top two is 59%
- GT has an 88.2% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points, but their chances of finishing first or second individually or jointly are slightly higher than RCB and SRH’s 60%
- Monday’s defeat dropped PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four in points to 64.4%, while their chances of finishing in the top two were just 28.2%
- CSK has a 53.8% chance of finishing in the top four, but only a 22% chance of finishing in the top two
- The chance of RR entering the top four is slightly lower at 53.6%, while the chance of occupying one of the top two is only 18.5%
- KKR’s chance of making it to the last four is only 13.5%, but they can now even finish in the top two on points, though the chance is only 3.7%
- With Monday’s win, D.C. retains its hopes of making the playoffs, but there’s only a 3.2 percent chance. At most they’re tied for third place with two to four other teams
How we arrive at the probabilities: With 15 games left, there are 32,768 possible combinations of outcomes. For each team, we looked at how many of them ended up in the top four, individually or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two, individually or jointly. For example, RCB finished in the top four out of 28,980 possible combinations of match results, meaning there was an 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four either individually or jointly.
