More than 3.6 billion voters in 152 constituencies will exercise their franchise in the first phase of the 2026 state assembly polls; the remaining 6.82 billion voters in other 142 constituencies will follow them next Wednesday. But this election – and even more so in the seats where votes are being cast today – will also involve disenfranchising 2.7 million voters who will not be able to vote despite having proof of their right to vote.The election commission found that there were some “logical discrepancies” or other problems with the 2.7 million voters. This could mean anything from a misspelled first name to a last name mismatch (with a parent) to a monk serving in a mission whose legal guardian was the head of those missions. The voting intensity in the 16 constituencies due to vote today is 9.4% lower than before the SIR was exercised (a large proportion, probably about half, are dead or “absent” or “transferred” voters).The shadow of SIR was most severe in Murshidabad, which lost 740,000 voters, and Malda, which lost 450,000 voters. Murshidabad encapsulates all the problems with SIR, which was originally intended to weed out non-voters but over the years has deprived people of their right to vote.Of the total 740,000 deletions in the region, more than 450,000 occurred at the “judicial adjudication” stage (to determine “logical differences”). The worst affected is the Shamsherganj constituency, often called ground zero of the crisis. To be precise, 74,775 voters (32% of the electorate) were disenfranchised, triggering a legal and political battle that is likely to be fierce even after the new parliament is formed.All of this takes some of the luster out of bellwether districts and electoral battles involving political heavyweights. But the first phase does also have that, to a large extent: the political futures of at least three such heavyweights – bjpSuvendu Adhikari and Dilip Ghosh and the Congress’s Adhir Chowdhury — depends on how voters cast their votes today (although Adhikari will have a second chance in the second phase as he, too, is from Bhowanipore and faces CM Mamata Banerjee).Adhikari, who has shrugged off the “defector” jibe over the past few years, is now facing a defector himself in his hometown of Nandigram. His challenger is Pabitra Kar, a former Adhikari aide with close ties to Hindutva outfits who is credited with giving Adhikari a 3,500-vote lead in the key Boyal district in the 2021 elections. CM Banerjee was stationed there for several hours and claimed massive manipulation, pictures of which went viral (and are still the subject of court battles). Adhikari barely passed with a margin of 1,956 votes. This time, Carr may give his former mentor a few sleepless nights before the votes are counted on May 4.More than 280 kilometers away, Congress veteran Chaudhry is fighting for his political survival in Behrampore. Chaudhry is a five-time MP but is now eyeing a path to political revival through the Bengal Assembly after his defeat in the last Lok Sabha polls. The BJP won this seat in 2021 and the fight this time is likely to be a fierce three-way fight with the Trinamool forming the third party (along with the BJP and the Congress).BJP veteran Ghosh is facing a similar situation in his hometown Kharagpur Sadar, where he is returning after a gap of a decade. His victory over former Congress cabinet minister Gyan Singh Sohanpal in 2016 marked his rise in the BJP’s state unit, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls he has been forced by his own party to abandon a region he is very familiar with. Ghosh hopes Kharagpur will support him again.Another political dynasty seeking relief is the family of former Congress Union minister Abba Ghani Khan Chaudhry. Across the region, Khan Choudhury’s niece Mausam Benazir Noor is fighting to reclaim her family’s political legacy after returning to Congress after a stint in the Trinamool and a seat in the House of Commons. But the region could also see a tripartite rivalry — and arithmetic could be tricky in such a contest.Many of the 16 constituencies going to polls today, from Darjeeling in the mountains to East Midnapur on the Bay of Bengal, are strongholds of the BJP, and the party will be betting on deleting the SIR to maintain the status quo. Nine of these 16 constituencies – Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Kalimpong, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur, Malda and Bankura – provided 38 seats (total 66) to the BJP, which ultimately helped it reach 77 seats in the last assembly.But the anger of voters and the consequent anti-BJP consolidation visible outside polling stations in various districts may also bring some help to the EVM’s Trinamool. The extent to which this anger translates into anti-BJP votes and the number of seats Trinamool can limit the BJP in these 16 constituencies could well influence the configuration of the next Bengal Assembly.
Hot seats
NandigramAfter leaving the TMC, Adhikari spent five years shrugging off defector caricatures and is now facing defectors himself. In 2021, Adhikari defeated CM Mamata Banerjee by 1,956 votes. His former confidant Kar is his TMC challenger. Identity politics continues to dominate, and demographics are expected to play a key role. The 2011 census showed that Hindus accounted for 65.8% of the population and Muslims accounted for 34%. But under SIR, 12,500 Muslim voters were excluded. Sabal Institute said the total deletions in Nandigram were 14,462, with Muslim voters accounting for 95.5% of the deletions. Residents say the main problem in the area is haphazard development, one of the hallmarks of which is the upright structure of the train station, but there is no rail link to the area.Previous winners: 2011 (TMC), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)kragpur sardarGhosh is back in parliament after a decade, although he is struggling to regain his standing in the BJP. A former BJP chief, he first rose to prominence here in 2016 when he defeated Congress MP Gyan Singh Sohanpal. The challenge facing candidates in the constituency this time is a massive purge of voter lists, with analysis by the Sabal Institute showing that more than 60,730 voters were completely deleted under the special enhanced revisions. Ghosh’s main challenger this time is Trinamool ,Not Congress. The BJP retained the seat in 2021 but its winning candidate in the last election, Hiran Chatterjee, has shifted to another constituency. Ghosh now faces Trinamool’s Pradeep SakaHe stressed his local roots and questioned why the BJP had kicked out past representatives from the seats.Past winners: 2011 (Congo), 2016 (BJP), 2021 (BJP)malatipurIt’s a three-way battle for a seat in the heart of Malda, pitting the stamina of a political dynasty against the strength of the state’s welfare. The seat, once a Congress stronghold, is now the focus of an emotional and mathematical battle as Mausam Benazir Noor returns to the Congress after seven years in the Trinamool, riding on the legacy of her uncle ABA Ghani Khan Chowdhury. Her biggest challenger is Trinamool’s Abdur Rahim Boxi, who won in 2021 by more than 91,000 votes. Boxi pinned her hopes on TMC’s direct welfare provision and believed that CM Banerjee had inherited the development spirit once championed by Khan Choudhury’s family. The BJP’s Ashish Das hopes to build on the party’s success in winning the Malda North Lok Sabha seat in 2024. The minority vote in this Muslim-majority seat (more than 60% of the electorate) has consolidated behind the TMC in 2021, but with the return of Mausam Noor, the vote bank now faces a potential split – which could favor the BJP.Previous winners: 2011 (RSP), 2016 (Cong), 2021 (TMC)SiliguriThis north Bengal seat has transformed from a Left bastion for three decades to a BJP stronghold. The Left wrested the seat from Trinamool in 2016, but the decisive turn came in 2021 when former CPM leader Shankar Ghosh won the seat for the BJP, defeating Trinamool’s Om Prakash Mishra by more than 35,000 votes. Central to the 2026 elections is the demand for a separate Siliguri district. Currently, the city is divided into Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri districts, forcing residents to travel 50 to 80 kilometers to complete administrative tasks. Trinamool candidate and mayor Deb has come up with a 12-point roadmap to drive the demand for separate constituencies. Ghosh presented a master plan for infrastructure and smart city development. According to Sabar Institute data, the total number of SIR deletions in Siliguri is 42,979 voters.Previous winners: 2011 (TMC), 2016 (CPM), 2021 (BJP)dinhataThis border constituency, about 700 kilometers north of Kolkata, is a crucible of geography, immigration and battles over land control. The region, historically a stronghold of Forward Bloc patriarch Kamal Guha, has transformed from a bloody intra-left conflict into a bitter modern showdown between Trinamool’s Udayan Guha and the rising Bharatiya Janata Party. The 2026 contest between Minister of State Guha and the BJP’s Ajay Rai is a legacy of structural violence. The Rajbanshi community and refugee groups hold the key to voting here. While the BJP has successfully weaponized identity – citing infiltration and persecution of minorities in nearby Rangpur – the Trinamool is banking on organizational dominance and welfare schemes. The removal of Rajbansi’s name from the SIR and the issuance of the NRC notification are bound to make the BJP’s stand strange.Previous winners: 2011 (AIFB), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)BehramboaboutBellampore, a Congress bastion for seven decades, is now the stage for a high-stakes triangular showdown between incumbent Subrata Maitra of the BJP, Naru Gopal Mukherjee of the Trinamool Congress and Congress heavyweight Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who is making a dramatic return to state politics after nearly three decades. Maitra is banking on a hyper-local campaign and tough rhetoric against “infiltration” and corruption under Mamata Banerjee’s government, while local municipal president Mukherjee is relying on welfare schemes to attract voters. For five-term MP Adil, it’s a battle for survival, legacy and political renewal, but he enters it with the support of a weakened party organization. Communal polarization is a major factor here – Behrampore has 70% Hindu voters – and the campaign focused on temple visits and raising questions about identity politics.Past winners: 2011, 2016 (Congo), 2021 (BJP)
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