West Bengal trust vote second phase: Who will win Matua vote?

New Delhi: With West Bengal going to polls in the second phase on Wednesday, the Matua community could emerge as the kingmaker in the high-stakes election.In the second phase, the Motua-dominated North 24 Parganas and Nadia belt could become the deciding factor in the TMC-BJP battle. However, before voting, a large proportion of voters were unsure whether they would be able to vote.The uncertainty stems from the Special Intensification Revision (SIR) of the electoral roll, which resulted in significant deletions in Matua-majority constituencies. In North 24 Parganas state alone, about 325,000 names were removed from the electoral rolls after the exercise. Data from the Bongaon subdivision in Matua’s core region shows expungement rates for those who were adjudicated range from 67 to 88 percent.

In Qaghata, 16,222 out of 22,278 marked voters were removed, while Baghdad recorded more than 15,000 voters removed. Similar situations were reported in northern and southern Banggaon.In Nadia constituencies such as Krishna Nagar North, Krishna Nagar South and Ranagah, more than 90 per cent of those examined failed to make it to the final polls. Administrative estimates indicate that a large proportion of the affected people belong to the Matua Namasudra community.The massive expungements come as the community remains in the midst of a long-pending citizenship process.

anxiety overlap

After the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) rules were announced in March 2024, around 1.12 lakh applications were submitted across West Bengal, but only around 15,000 applications have been approved so far. More than 50,000 of those applications came from North 24 Parganas and Nadia, two regions now experiencing massive voter exclusions.This overlap fuels local anxieties. In some areas, residents who have lived and voted in those areas for decades said their names have been marked as “under adjudication” or removed entirely.

“We were promised citizenship but it never materialized. Now we are helpless,” Gaghata resident Sukhomoy Haldar told TOI.Ramesh Gayen, from Baghdad, who applied for citizenship months ago, said delays in the application process meant he would not be able to vote in this election. Yogesh Biswas, from the same district, said he had turned down the application hoping to get clarification first but now also faced the risk of being excluded.

The politics of purges

The political response was sharp and contradictory. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) claimed that the SIR exercise was aimed at disenfranchising Matua voters, while local BJP leaders and workers in some constituencies also criticized the scale of the expungement.In Baghdad and Qaghata, protests and defections were reported, with some party workers speaking out against the choice of candidates and linking their anger to exclusions from voter lists. However, at the national level, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi Trying to appease the community. Addressing a rally in Bengal, he said the families of Matua and Namasudra would be granted citizenship and receive “all the benefits to which Indian citizens are entitled” under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Prime Minister Modi also offered prayers at the Matua Thakur temple in North 24 Parganas and reiterated his government’s determination to obtain Indian citizenship quickly for its members at a public meeting.While the Prime Minister at Sunday’s rally asked Matuas and other Hindu refugees from Bangladesh to ignore the TMC’s claims, Home Minister Amit Shah and other BJP activists have been stressing the party’s commitment to their welfare.The assurance comes as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to retain support in the region, which saw the party increase its seat count in the Lok Sabha from 2 seats in 2014 to 18 seats in 2019. However, as a practical matter, the immediate concern is not long-term policy but current eligibility. In the Northern 24 Parganas state, where Matuas account for nearly 30% of the population and influence 33 parliamentary seats, the issues many voters are grappling with are procedural ones, such as whether their names will be restored in time, whether applying for citizenship will affect their status, and whether they will be able to participate in the April 29 voting process.

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The risk of this uncertainty is high due to the electoral weight of the community. The population of Matua Namasudra is estimated to be about 17% to 18% of the population of West Bengal, with a higher concentration of population in the border areas. They operate across North and South 24 Parganas, Nadia, Howrah, Cooch Behar and parts of North Bengal.Electoral analysts estimate that Matua voters influence the outcome of 60 to 65 parliamentary seats. In the second phase alone, they were key factors in 21 constituencies. In hotly contested elections, this influence gives communities leverage that political parties cannot ignore.This is evident in recent electoral trends. In 2019, the BJP made significant gains in Bengal, winning 18 Lok Sabha seats, partly due to support in Matua-dominated districts such as Banggaon and Ranaghat. In the 2021 parliamentary elections, it won 9 out of 21 seats, with Matua voters being the decisive factor. Even in 2024, when its numbers are declining, it still maintains its leadership position in several of these segments. The TMC had earlier secured strong support through welfare measures and refugee rehabilitation and continued to put communities at the heart of its electoral strategy. The result is fierce competition for a large and increasingly assertive vote bank.

From caste margins to political center

The political significance of the Matua Namasudra community is rooted in its history. The Namasudras were once one of the most marginalized caste groups in eastern Bengal, relegated to the lowest rungs of the social hierarchy. Their advocacy began in the nineteenth century under the leadership of Harichand Thakur, who founded the Matua movement to fight caste discrimination and call for dignity and equality.His son Guruchand Thakur expanded the movement, promoting education and political awareness. Matua identity became a religious and social force that provided an alternative to caste oppression and pressure for religious conversion.Partition disrupted this trajectory. Over the decades, especially during the 1950 riots and the 1971 war, large numbers of Namasudras migrated from East Pakistan and later Bangladesh. They arrive in West Bengal as refugees and often settle in colonies with limited infrastructure and economic opportunities.Thakurnagar in North 24 Parganas became the center of the Matua movement in India, linking faith, memory and identity. Over time, this shared experience of displacement translated into political consciousness.

unfinished promises

For decades, the question of citizenship for many in the community has remained unresolved. The CAA is seen as a turning point, providing a path to formal recognition for non-Muslim refugees from neighboring countries.For Matuas, this is more than just a legal requirement. It has to do with their history of displacement and their search for a sense of belonging. The promise of citizenship has both practical and symbolic implications.In districts such as North 24 Parganas and Nadia, more than 50,000 applications have been submitted, but many applicants are still waiting, just as only 15,000 out of 112,000 people across Bangladesh have been approved.The gap between promise and delivery creates frustration. The SIR campaign exacerbated this frustration by bringing documentation and eligibility issues to the fore.

SIR cleaning

The Special Intensification Revision (SIR) has become a flashpoint in the Matua-dominated region. Although it is a formal administrative process, its impact has far-reaching political and social significance.In several precincts, entire groups of voters were marked as “under adjudication” and subsequently removed. Residents said the process was difficult to navigate due to unclear documentation requirements and timelines.“My parents and grandmother have been voting since 2002. I was born here and educated here but our names have been removed,” a resident of the area told TOI.For many, the concern goes beyond just voting. Electoral status is associated with access to welfare programs and state recognition. Losing a place on the electoral roll also raises concerns about losing other rights.Another resident said: “I receive a pension and am worried that I might lose it if I am no longer a registered voter.”These fears reflect deeper insecurities. For a community shaped by immigration and delayed recognition, the verification process is not seen as routine. They are seen as a test of belonging.

internal division

The response to the SIR exposed divisions not only between parties but also within them. The TMC accused the BJP of using the exercise to weaken a key voter base. While the BJP has defended the process at the central level, it has also faced criticism from sections of the local leadership.Protests and defections were reported in constituencies including Baghdad and Qaghata. Some leaders ran as independents, citing dissatisfaction with both candidate selection and voter deletion.The Thakur family holds symbolic authority within the Matua community, but is itself divided along political lines. Different members have aligned themselves with different parties, reflecting wider divisions within the community.This division has implications for voting patterns. Matua’s vote, once thought to consolidate a single political force, now looks more destabilizing.

beyond arithmetic

Despite these divisions, the Matua Namasudra community remains one of the most politically aware groups in the state. Its voting behavior is influenced not only by immediate interests but also by a strong sense of history and identity.This identity includes memories of caste discrimination, the reform movements led by Harichand and Guruchand Thakur, and the experience of post-Partition displacement. It also involves trying to rebuild a life in a new country while seeking recognition and dignity.These factors influence community responses to political messages. Citizenship pledges resonate because they address a long-standing problem. At the same time, administrative actions like SIRs come under strict scrutiny because they affect direct rights.

A question behind the vote

As West Bengal enters the election cycle, the Matua belt stands out not only because of its electoral importance but also because of the issues it raises.In these districts, competition is not just between political parties. It is also somewhere between commitment and process. Between long-term guarantee and instant experience.For many voters, the choice is no longer just about which party to support. The first is whether they can attend.The Matua Namasudra community has come a long way from caste marginalization in East Bengal to becoming a decisive force in West Bengal politics. Its journey reflects resilience and adaptability.This election chronicles this tense time. In this moment, citizenship remains incomplete and electoral participation itself is called into question.As April 29 approaches, the mood in Matua heartland is less determined by campaign rhetoric and more by a simple, unresolved concern: whether they will be counted.ALSO READ | Searching for Indian ‘porichoy’: Will Matua-Namasudra rewrite ‘poriborton’ in Bengal elections?