US predicts El Niño may arrive in first half of monsoon

The latest update from the National Weather Service has strengthened forecasts for this year’s El Niño, saying weather conditions associated with insufficient monsoon rains in India could occur as early as the three months between June and August, and there is a one-in-three chance of developing into a strong El Niño.The latest news released on Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predicts a 62% chance of an El Niño event from June to August (corresponding to the Indian summer monsoon), rising to more than 80% in subsequent months.This probability is significantly higher than the agency’s latest news released on February 12, which showed that the probability of El Niño from July to September was 52%, rising to around 60% in the following months.

“While a clearer picture will emerge in the next two months, considering the consensus of major meteorological agencies around the world, including the IMD, we can be reasonably certain that El Niño will occur this year. Considering that this weather condition is associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India, the government should prepare accordingly,” said M Rajeevan, a senior meteorologist and former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.El Niño is a warm period in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that corresponds to changes in wind patterns. Together, these factors have a profound impact on weather around the world.Since 1980, there have been 14 El Niño events, nine of which corresponded to years with a deficient Indian monsoon, with rainfall at least 10% below the long-term average. In 2018, the monsoon intensity was close to -9.4%.“Although there are exceptions, there is a strong link between El Niño and poor monsoons in India. The most striking example was in 1997, when the monsoon was normal despite a super strong El Niño,” Rajevan said.In 1997, the strong positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) canceled out El Niño. The IOD is a measure of the difference in surface water temperatures between the eastern and western regions of the ocean. Forecasts indicate that IOD is likely to be positive this monsoon.“IOD forecasts are less reliable and its impact on the Indian monsoon is not strong and consistent. Every season has a unique dynamic,” says Rajevan.The U.S. update contrasts with a release from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which predicts accelerated warming in the Pacific and the potential for a very strong or “super” El Niño later this year that could trigger unprecedented heat waves.