U.S. intelligence warns Khamenei to step down, but regime change in Iran ‘unlikely’ – report

Coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran eliminate high-value Iranian targets Donald TrumpIn an epic act of rage, Tehran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed after the US president repeatedly called for “regime change” in the Islamic Republic. But whether this goal can be achieved now remains uncertain. A report in the Washington Post said a transition to regime change in Iran remains “unlikely.”Even a large-scale U.S. military strike against Iran is unlikely to topple the country’s entrenched military and clerical institutions, The Washington Post said, citing a classified report, casting doubt on expectations of regime change as Donald Trump’s administration signals a broader military campaign that officials say is “just beginning.”

Three people familiar with the matter confirmed the report to The Washington Post, which casts doubt on President Donald Trump’s plan to “clean up” Iran’s leadership and install a new ruler of his choice.The intelligence assessment was completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched war on February 28. The assessment examines different scenarios, including limited operations targeting Iran’s leadership and broader attacks on the country’s leadership and institutions. In both cases, analysts have concluded that Iran’s system is likely to continue to function even if Khamenei is killed. They say Iran’s religious and military institutions have procedures in place to ensure continuity of power.The report also called the possibility of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control “unlikely,” according to people familiar with the matter.The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which prepared the report, brought together experienced analysts from the U.S. intelligence community. Its report is intended to reflect the collective judgment of Washington’s 18 intelligence agencies.The CIA referred questions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. The White House also has not confirmed whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving military action. Since the war began, the conflict has expanded to include submarine activity in the Indian Ocean and a missile confrontation near NATO member Türkiye.“President Trump and the Administration have clearly outlined their goals with Operation Epic Fury: to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile and production capabilities, destroy their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The Iranian regime is being completely destroyed.”Other major media outlets, including the New York Times, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, also reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were skeptical that Iran’s opposition could quickly take power. However, NIC’s detailed analysis of the possible outcomes of different military offensives has not been previously reported.Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and associate president of the Brookings Institution, said the assessment reflected a deep understanding of Iran’s political system.“This sounds like an in-depth assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been put in place over the years,” she said.The intelligence report does not appear to examine other possible options, such as deploying U.S. ground forces in Iran or supporting Kurdish groups to spark an insurgency. It is unclear whether the large-scale operations discussed in the report are identical to military operations currently underway.Meanwhile, Iran’s succession appears to be unfolding, even as the country faces heavy air and sea strikes from the United States and Israel.The decision on Iran’s next supreme leader rests with the powerful Council of Experts, a senior clerical body. However, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security officials also wield significant influence.There has been speculation that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, may take over. But no official announcement has been made yet. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is pushing for his candidacy, according to a Western security official, although some senior figures, including Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, oppose the move.As the war enters its second week, Trump continues to demand Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” as he wrote in an article for The Truth Society. He also suggested that he should play a role in selecting Iran’s next leader.Trump told reporters that Khamenei was “incompetent” and a “lightweight” and said he did not want the leader to simply “rebuild” Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.“We hope they have a good leader. I think we have some guys that can do a good job,” he told NBC News.Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected the idea of ​​Trump playing any role in choosing the country’s next leader.“The fate of dear Iran is more precious than life and will be decided solely by the proud Iranian nation and not by [Jeffrey] Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf wrote on X, referring to the late sex offender who once had close ties to Trump.Current and former U.S. officials say they have seen no signs of a large-scale uprising in Iran or serious divisions within the government or security forces that could lead to regime change. In the past, Iranian security forces have shown a willingness to forcefully suppress protests. Thousands of protesters were killed earlier this year during demonstrations over the country’s economic problems.So far, Trump’s message to the Iranian public has been to stay indoors until the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign ends.Experts say that as long as Iran’s religious and military leadership remains intact, Trump will have limited influence over the country’s political future.“Surrendering to Trump would go against everything they stand for,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The upper echelons of the clergy are ideological, so their modus operandi is to resist U.S. imperialism.”If the Iranian government collapses, Trump may be able to influence events. But intelligence reports suggest the system remains robust.“There is no other force within Iran that can counter the remaining power that the regime has,” Maloney said. “Even if they can’t project that power very effectively to their neighbors, they can certainly dominate domestically.”