Shining light: Donald Trump’s nuclear threat turns darker in the face of Iran’s defiance

TOI reporter in Washington: US President Donald Trump continued his cold-blooded approach to Iran on Thursday amid a diplomatic standoff that saw the two sides exchange gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz. While the international community appears to be beginning to realize that Washington may have overestimated its influence in the conflict, Iran’s resilience and signs of defiance prompted Trump to issue another veiled nuclear threat against a country he has repeatedly threatened to eliminate. Despite escalating hostilities in the Gulf, Trump insisted the ceasefire with Iran remained in effect, telling reporters: “If there wasn’t a ceasefire, you wouldn’t have to know. You only have to look at the light coming from Iran. With his “radiant” remarks sounding close to a nuclear threat, he followed up with an ultimatum: “They’d better sign the deal as soon as possible… If they don’t sign, they’re going to suffer a lot.”“The comments came amid renewed missile exchanges, drone strikes and maritime skirmishes in and around the Gulf on Thursday, despite Washington’s insistence that talks with Tehran were still ongoing. Administration officials later sought to soften their interpretation of the nuclear threat, arguing that the president was referring broadly to U.S. military might. Trump’s threats also came awkwardly amid new intelligence leaks that suggested the United States may not have as much influence as the White House publicly claimed. A classified CIA assessment circulated among senior policymakers reportedly concluded that Iran could withstand a U.S.-led naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four months, and possibly longer, despite heavy bombing and severe economic pressure. According to reports, intelligence agencies estimate that Iran still retains about 70% of its missile launch capabilities and has restored part of its missile production network, although Trump boasted that it had eliminated them, leaving Iran with less than 20% of its capabilities. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seemed to mock and taunt Trump on the issue, claiming that Tehran’s missile inventory and launch capability were at 120%, much higher than U.S. assessments. “Every time a diplomatic solution is proposed, the United States chooses reckless military adventures. Is this a crude pressure tactic? Or is it the result of spoilers once again leading the US president into another quagmire?” Araghchi said in a post on X, where US media reports began to question Trump’s claims about Iran’s collapse. The intelligence findings undercut repeated White House claims that Tehran is on the verge of military and economic collapse. Instead, intelligence officials reportedly warned that Iran appears ready for a long-term war of attrition as Washington’s limited political patience and pressure on U.S. military stockpiles mount.These concerns are heightened by another report that is reverberating in Washington’s strategic circles. Under the eye-catching headline “U.S. runs out of weapons in Iran war, China sees a ‘limping giant'”, analysts close to Beijing believe that the United States’ long-term Iran actions are steadily weakening its deterrent posture in the Pacific, especially on the Taiwan issue.Chinese analysts reportedly believe the Iran conflict has exposed U.S. weaknesses in logistics, missile inventories and political stamina – an assessment that could bolster Beijing’s leverage in future negotiations with Washington. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing later this month, and the image emerging from two reports is of a superpower trying to sound like a giant while quietly confronting the arithmetic of overreach.The contradiction was on display again on Thursday, when Trump simultaneously boasted that Iran was “knocked out in two minutes” following a new conflict in the Gulf while insisting that talks were “going very well.” The U.S. president has also become a regular butt of jokes on late-night television, tapping into growing public unease about another distant war. The latest military exchange began late Wednesday with reports that Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles targeted U.S. naval assets escorting commercial shipping near Hormuz. Pentagon officials said U.S. destroyers intercepted multiple shells, but regional reports suggested at least one ship suffered minor damage. Meanwhile, Iran accuses Washington of violating the ceasefire framework by continuing maritime interdiction and aerial surveillance operations near Iranian territory.Inside Washington, the conflict has also exposed fissures within Trump’s own coalition. Some Republican hawks have urged a broader strike against Iranian infrastructure and Revolutionary Guard leadership targets, arguing that Tehran has shown resilience precisely because Washington has not escalated enough. But another faction — including several military officials and conservative foreign policy skeptics — worries the administration is slipping into an endless regional war with unclear goals, rising costs and shrinking strategic returns.