Mojtaba Khamenei missing in action. Is this why the Iranian regime survives?

At first glance, Iran’s Supreme Leader continues to be absent; Mojtaba Khameneilooks like a sign of deep instability. In most political systems – especially one as centralized as Iran’s – the disappearance of the supreme power triggers chaos. But in Iran’s current moment of crisis, that absence could have the opposite effect — helping the regime stay afloat.The Supreme Leader has not been seen in public following the reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His name continues to appear in official sources, but without any apparent involvement or confirmed involvement in decision-making.Even his comments were disseminated through state media and even artificial intelligence-generated videos, reinforcing the perception of the leader as a symbolic rather than physical presence in public governance, CNN reported.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps expands control

In the absence of visible leadership, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly assumed a more direct ruling role. Fox News and Iran International reported that IRGC commander Ahmed Vahidi blocked President Masoud Pezeshkian’s attempt to appoint a new intelligence minister, rejecting all proposed candidates, including Hossein Dakhgan. Vahidi insisted that all sensitive appointments be handled directly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under what he said were wartime conditions. This effectively marginalizes civilian decision-making in key security matters, although under Iran’s system such appointments typically require the approval of the supreme leader.In addition, the Pezeshkian government has fallen into a so-called “political deadlock.” According to the Financial Express, the president’s power to advance key decisions appears to be limited, especially in areas related to intelligence and national security. Iran International also reports that Pezeshkian has repeatedly sought to meet with Mojtaba Khamenei, but these requests have gone unanswered, deepening the current uncertainty over where ultimate power lies.

Is Khamenei being used as political cover?

Analysts believe the system is using Mojtaba Khamenei’s name as political cover.CNN quoted Ali Vaez as saying that “Moitaba is not yet in a position to really make key decisions or micromanage negotiations,” but that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions, not negotiation tactics.”“The system does deliberately emphasize Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a shield of protection from internal criticism…unlike his father, who regularly comes out to comment on the status of the negotiations,” he said, adding, “Mojtaba is missing from the action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”Meanwhile, Iran’s political messaging continues to emphasize unity. State-affiliated media have denied claims of internal divisions, while senior figures such as parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remain prominent at diplomatic events, including reportedly talks in Islamabad.U.S. Vice President Vance said last week’s talks failed to reach an agreement and the Iranian delegation must return to Tehran to seek approval from the supreme leader or “someone else.”So far, no agreement can truly take effect in Iran without the approval of the Supreme Leader. But now, the system may be entering a stage where public approval from leaders is no longer strictly required.