Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae, is expected to score a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap lower house election, according to exit polls and media forecasts.
Liberal Democrats expected to gain majority in House of Representatives
According to Agence France-Presse, public broadcaster NHK said the Liberal Democratic Party may win 274 to 328 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives, much higher than the 198 seats before the election.Together with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the ruling bloc is expected to win between 302 and 366 seats.Breaking the 310-seat mark would give the coalition a two-thirds majority for the first time since 2017, allowing it to pass legislation without opposition support.
High market gets boost after tumultuous years for LDP
The result marks a sharp turn for the Liberal Democratic Party, which has suffered electoral setbacks in recent years over rising prices and corruption concerns. The alliance, led by senior high school senior Shigeru Ishiba, lost its majority in the upper house last year and is due to lose control of the lower house in 2024.Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister in October, capitalizing on her popularity by announcing snap elections just three months after taking office.She has appealed to young voters with her energetic and unconventional style and defied skepticism within her party, according to AFP.
Economy and inflation remain concerns for voters
Despite the projected victory, voters remain anxious about the economy. Inflation and stagnant wages were prominent issues on polling day.“As prices rise, the most important thing to me is what policies they will adopt to combat inflation,” Tokyo voter Chika Sakamoto said, according to Agence France-Presse, adding that household incomes were not keeping pace with costs.Takahiro launched a US$135 billion economic stimulus plan and promised to suspend the food consumption tax, but concerns about Japan’s public finances remain. The country’s debt is more than twice the size of its economy, and bond yields have hit record highs in recent weeks.
China, Taiwan and regional tensions take center stage
The election results could also complicate relations with China. Gao Yi, considered a China hawk, recently suggested that Japan might intervene militarily if Beijing uses force against Taiwan, triggering a strong reaction from China.Beijing summoned the Japanese ambassador, warned its citizens not to travel to Japan, and held joint air exercises with Russia. The issue has raised concerns about regional stability even as U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly praised Gao as a “strong, powerful and wise leader.”
Major mandate could advance right-wing agenda
An overwhelming majority of lawmakers will allow Takaichi to advance her conservative agenda, which includes increasing defense spending, revamping security policies, lifting restrictions on arms exports and tightening rules on foreigners, the Associated Press reported.Experts warned that while the victory solidified her position, there were still unresolved issues over funding military expansion and managing diplomatic tensions. According to AFP, one analyst said the best outcome now is for the market to “take a deep breath” and work to stabilize relations with China ahead of the next electoral test in 2028.