Iran launches ‘massive missile’ attack on US air base in Bahrain; Israel bombs Beirut

U.S. President Donald Trump has said the attack on Iran was to neutralize the threat, but it remains unclear how he expects the conflict to end.

Trump initially called on Iranians to rise up against the government after the first round of attacks on Saturday killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Soon after, however, he said the war with Israel was not about regime change.

The military campaign launched by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dubbed an “epic fury” by the Pentagon. Trump warned that the conflict could last four weeks or more and threatened further devastating strikes against Iran. Hundreds of deaths have been reported in Iran, a country of about 90 million people.

Facing criticism for the lack of a clear strategy, Trump and his top aides on Monday outlined four main goals for the war, all focused on military objectives. These include destroying Iran’s naval and military capabilities, ending Tehran’s support for regional militant groups, and preventing the country from developing nuclear weapons.

Atlantic Council Vice Chairman Matthew Kronig said Trump may have achieved several of his goals, including killing a leader long seen as an adversary to the United States. He added that the government appeared keen to avoid long-term conflicts such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“I think they could pretty much go home at any time and declare it a success,” Kronig said. “I think the strategy is more about what they want to avoid than what exactly they want to achieve.”

Negal Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Iran would likely resist any quick ceasefire, arguing it needed a strong response to deter future attacks.

“Their ultimate goal is to make sure that this thing does enough harm and causes enough pain to be felt by the United States, Israel and our neighbors,” she said.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reducing Iran’s military capabilities appears to be a core goal. Israel has previously launched airstrikes into Syria on several occasions in an effort to weaken its long-time rival.

Netanyahu also launched a large-scale offensive in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, a group backed by Iran’s leadership.

In contrast to America’s past wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – which were often framed as efforts to promote democracy – US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the current conflict with Iran “is not a democracy-building exercise” and does not involve “silly rules of engagement.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would “love” to see the Iranian people overthrow their government, but stressed that regime change was not the official goal of the war.

Some analysts say the real purpose may be to weaken the Iranian government from within. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, described Trump’s approach as “not seeking regime change, but regime implosion.”

“The hope is that they can reduce as much as possible Iran’s capabilities or the country’s repressive capabilities,” he said.

Passi added that from Israel’s perspective, further weakening Iran – even to the point of state collapse – would weaken Tehran’s influence in the region.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former pro-Western king who was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution, said he believed the religious leader could eventually fall and called on Iranians to rise up when the time comes.

Max Boot, a military historian at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Trump’s goals seemed deliberately vague, particularly on whether the war was to change Iran’s government or simply change its behavior.

“I think he basically kept it ambiguous so that no matter what happened, he could claim it was a huge victory,” Butt said.

“No matter what happens, he will demand vindication.”