India needs $22trn to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070; Niti Aayog: Coal use to increase by 2047 India News

NEW DELHI: As India works to meet its 2035 climate action goals, government think tank Niti Aayog on Monday released a roadmap to achieve the country’s “net-zero” emissions target by 2070, noting that the transformation will require a cumulative investment of $22.7 trillion (about $500 billion per year) to fund multiple “high-level actions” to achieve the twin goals of “Viksit Bharat” (making India) and long-term carbon neutrality. At least $6 trillion of total investment needs need to come from external sources, the report said.The government think tank also emphasized that India’s coal consumption will continue to grow until 2047, which fully hints at the situation of India’s latest climate action – Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2035. The roadmap – Towards ‘Viksit Bharat’ and Net Zero Emissions Scenarios: An Overview – highlights India’s vision of becoming a developed economy by 2047 and achieving “net zero” emissions by 2070, saying this requires a “delicate balancing act”.“Many of the technologies required for net zero emissions have not yet reached commercial maturity, and mature low-carbon technologies often require significant upfront investment,” the report said of the challenges.The report points out India’s transition to clean energy scenarios, noting that the share of non-fossil fuel power generation (including captive) is expected to increase from 23% in 2025 to 65% under the current policy scenario, to 80% under the “net zero” scenario in 2050. “This is expected to rise to over 80% by 2070 under the current policy scenario and to 100% under the ‘net zero’ scenario,” it said.“The ‘Net Zero’ strategy is simple – first, electrify energy use. Second, green and clean electricity. Third, control demand through Mission LiFE. Fourth, focus on circularity and efficiency. Finally, cheaper external financing is needed. It is clearly stated that even as energy intensity falls and efficiency improves, India’s coal consumption will still rise until 2047 while achieving the ‘Net Zero’ target.” India can emerge as a global leader in clean technology. NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said at the launch of the report that 85 per cent of India’s land will not be built up by 2047 but can be built climate-friendly. In addition to a focus on clean energy, the roadmap’s high-level actions for India’s “net-zero” transition include a focus on circularity, urban mobility, efficient buildings, appropriate land use, critical minerals and reliable data from monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems as core infrastructure.In terms of transition financing, the report notes that the electricity sector alone accounts for more than half of total demand ($22.7 trillion), reflecting its central role in electrifying the overall economy and expanding low-carbon generation.“On an annual basis, this cumulative demand implies an average annual flow of about $500 billion, with actual annual investment in 2024 of about $135 billion, of which only $70-80 billion currently supports clean energy,” the report said.Given the capital-intensive nature of most low-carbon technologies, about $8 trillion of this must be invested up front by 2050, with nearly $5 trillion of that in the power sector, the report added.The think tank noted that total flows are expected to be only $16.2 trillion compared with the $22.7 trillion “net zero” scenario investment requirements, leaving a financing gap of $6.5 trillion, and recommended the establishment of a “national green finance agency” in the country to meet this need.At the same time, it expressed confidence in India’s approach, saying India’s “net zero” transformation will create a new “Indian development model” that combines economic dynamism, technological leadership and sustainability. “The path shown by India will serve as a beacon for developing countries. India’s development model will lead the way for other countries,” the think tank said.“NITI Aayog has undertaken comprehensive and rigorous work that will serve as a benchmark and the starting point for future discussions on ‘Viksit Bharat’ and ‘Net Zero’. These reports are an excellent resource for policymakers and researchers to help chart India’s course towards achieving both goals. ” said V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser to the government. The 11-part report details the findings of India’s first comprehensive government-led multi-sector study to assess development scenarios to achieve the Viksit Bharat 2047 goals while reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero by 2070.The study entails a “scenario-based analytical modeling exercise” that integrates economic growth, India’s development priorities and climate commitments. The report, prepared by 10 inter-ministerial working groups, examines long-term transition scenarios in key areas such as the macroeconomic aspects of the transition, the low-carbon transition in sectors such as electricity, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture; climate action financing; critical minerals; R&D and manufacturing; and the social impacts of the transition.