From ‘lifestyle’ to precision strikes: Israel and the US secret build-up to assassinate Khamenei

For years, Israeli intelligence quietly tracked the movements of Iran’s most powerful man, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Now, in one of the most dramatic military actions in recent history, Iran’s supreme leader for more than three decades has been killed in a coordinated U.S.-Israeli strike. According to the Financial Times, the mission is ambitious and long in the making, built on years of patient monitoring, data collection and political calculations.

watch Tehrancamera by camera

When bodyguards and drivers for top Iranian officials arrived for work near Tehran’s Pasteur Street, where Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Saturday, they were likely unaware they were being watched.According to the Financial Times, almost all traffic cameras in Tehran were hacked years ago. Their information was allegedly encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel, according to people familiar with the matter.One camera angle proved particularly valuable. It shows where security personnel park private cars and provides insight into daily life inside the heavily guarded compound.Over time, complex algorithms build detailed profiles, or what intelligence officials call “patterns of life.” The files include home addresses, duty hours, commute routes and, most importantly, which officers each guard is assigned to protect.This is just a stream of information. There are hundreds more.

Interruption of communications before strike

Israeli and US intelligence agencies also reportedly penetrated mobile phone networks near Pasteur Street. At critical moments, some phone towers were disrupted, making equipment appear busy and preventing protection teams from receiving possible warnings.Even before the bombs were dropped, Israeli intelligence had developed a near-complete familiarity with Tehran, according to one official.

“When you know [a place] Even though you know the streets you grew up on, you notice something a little out of place,” the Israeli intelligence official added.This intelligence dominance is the result of more than 8,200 years of work by Israel’s signals intelligence forces, human resources recruited by Mossad, and extensive data analysis by military intelligence teams.Israel also uses social network analysis, a mathematical method that studies patterns of relationships and influence, to sift through billions of data points and identify new targets.“In Israeli intelligence culture, targeting intelligence is the most important tactical issue — it’s designed to achieve strategy,” said Itai Shapira, a brigadier general in the Israeli military reserves and a 25-year veteran of the Israeli intelligence service. “If policymakers decide that someone must be assassinated, the culture in Israel is: ‘We will provide intelligence on the target.'”

This is a political decision, not just a military one

Despite the technological sophistication, officials say assassinating Khamenei is ultimately a political choice.

For years, Israel avoided directly targeting him. During the 12-day war last June, Israeli air strikes killed more than a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists and senior military officials and paralyzed the air defense system. But Khamenei was not attacked.This time is different.When U.S. and Israeli intelligence determined that Khamenei would hold a Saturday morning meeting at his residence, they saw a rare opportunity. Senior Iranian officials will gather in one place. If war begins in earnest, they may be moved to underground bunkers out of reach of Israel.One source told the Financial Times: “It’s unusual that he wasn’t in his bunker – he had two bunkers – and if he had been, Israel wouldn’t have been able to attack him with the bombs they have.”Unlike Khamenei’s ally Hassan Nasrallah, who spent years in hiding before being killed in Beirut in 2024, Khamenei did not live in secrecy. He has spoken publicly about the possibility of being killed and reportedly believed martyrdom was possible.

Still, attacking him in daylight was a calculated move. The Israeli military later said the morning attack resulted in a tactical surprise despite Iran’s preparations.

America’s role

Washington played a key role behind the scenes.While Israel obtained signals intelligence from hacked cameras and mobile networks, the Americans reportedly had a source confirm that the meeting was proceeding as planned. The CIA declined to comment.Israeli doctrine requires two senior military officers to work independently before an attack to confirm the presence of a target. For a high-profile figure like Khamenei, failure is not an option.Israeli warplanes reportedly fired as many as 30 precision munitions after flying for several hours. Some of the missiles used are variants of the Sparrow system, capable of striking targets as small as a dining table from more than 1,000 kilometers away.

How Trump went to war

The decision to upgrade wasn’t made overnight.In early February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Met with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. The two countries have been discussing possible military action against Iran for weeks, even as U.S. officials have publicly engaged in nuclear talks with Tehran.

Trump expressed frustration with diplomacy.He viewed the history of negotiations with Iran as years of “talk, talk, talk.”Asked if he supported regime change, Trump said “it seems like the best thing that could happen.”

Two weeks later, he authorized a massive bombing campaign against Israel. The attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, hit nuclear and military installations and sparked violence across the region.Publicly, Trump appears to waver between negotiation and confrontation. But behind closed doors, with encouragement from Netanyahu and Trump’s growing confidence in himself after previous overseas operations, his shift toward military action is gaining momentum, according to people familiar with the matter.According to the New York Times, momentum toward war is building behind the scenes, driven by allies such as Netanyahu and his confidence in early U.S. overseas actions.The decision was based on accounts from officials with direct knowledge of the deliberations, many of whom spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the discussions, the newspaper reported.For Netanyahu, America’s entry into the war marked a strategic victory. Months earlier, at a conference in Florida, he had sought approval to attack Iranian missile sites. Instead, he secured a bigger goal, a formal U.S. partner, in a campaign that reshaped the Middle East overnight.

All details of the operation may not be made public. Intelligence tools remain closely guarded. But what is clear is that the attack on Khamenei was the culmination of years of surveillance, technical precision and political determination, a moment when intelligence, timing and power merged with historic consequences.