Bengal exit polls 2026: BJP expected to replace Mamata Banerjee; TMC stares at setback

NEW DELHI: Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections on Wednesday suggested that the election will be a dramatic contest, with most pollsters expecting the BJP (bjp) has an advantage over the current Trinamool Congress (TMC) in status.According to People’s Pulse, the TMC is likely to lead in 177-187 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 95-110 seats. However, most other surveys suggest the BJP has the advantage. Matrize expects the BJP to get 146-161 seats and the TMC 125-140 seats. P-Marq gave the BJP a lead of 150-175 seats and the TMC 118-138 seats.

The poll diary predicts that the BJP will get 142-171 seats and the TMC 99-127 seats, while the JVC forecast suggests that the contest will be tighter with the BJP getting 138-159 seats and the TMC 131-152 seats.The Left Front, Congress and other groups are expected to win only a handful of seats in various surveys, underscoring the polarizing nature of the race.The exit poll forecast came as the final phase of voting ended on Wednesday night, with turnout reaching around 90% before the polls closed. Districts such as Purba Bardhaman, Hooghly and Nadia recorded a voter turnout of over 90 per cent, reflecting strong voter participation across the state.The 2026 assembly elections are widely seen as a direct contest between the ruling TMC seeking a fourth consecutive term under the chief minister Mamata Banerjeeand the resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party, aim to form the first government in the state.The two leading contenders had different explanations for the high turnout. While the TMC believes the numbers reflect support for its governance and welfare schemes, the BJP insists the surge signals a desire for political change.The final phase, covering 142 constituencies mainly in south Bengal and Kolkata, is crucial for the TMC, which dominates the region in 2021. For the BJP, this is an opportunity to expand its reach in urban constituencies and key voter groups.With over 3.21 crore voters and more than 1,400 candidates in the fray, the election results are expected to have significant political implications beyond the national boundaries.Counting will take place on May 4, when it will be known whether the exit polls accurately reflect the mood of voters or whether West Bengal delivers another surprise verdict.