Assam election results: Guru mom delivers magic majority

Limited seats give saffron party multiplier effectDelimitation has become an uncertain factor in Assam’s first assembly polls since constituency boundaries were redrawn in 2023, cutting Muslim-majority seats from 35 to 22, leaving the BJP’s two main rivals – the Congress and the AIUDF – locked in an existential fight. While the number of parliamentary seats remained unchanged at 126, delimitation changed the representation matrix, keeping the number of Muslim MLAs below 25 while making the indigenous community a decisive factor in 103 seats (from 90). CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has been saying that the delimitation will ensure that indigenous communities occupy more than 100 of the 126 seats. The poll results have paid dividends for the BJP. The Congress party has boosted its standing in shrinking Muslim-majority areas at the expense of perfume tycoon Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF.

The state’s new electoral geography has shaken the opposition’s balance even before the polls. Several sitting AIUDF legislators jumped ship and joined NDA member AGP to ensure that they do not miss the bus in the fight for fewer tickets than before. For the BJP, this is a strategic fit, increasing the NDA’s prospects in seats where the Muslim vote is decisive. While the script didn’t exactly go as planned, the AIUDF ending up with just two seats was exactly what the BJP had hoped for. The 2023 delimitation exercise will not only reduce the weight of constituencies long dominated by Bengali-origin Muslim voters, but also increase the number of seats reserved for STs from 16 to 19. SC seats increased by 1 to 9. The redrawn seats include Congress strongholds in lower, central and southern Assam, which have a high concentration of Muslim voters. Assam’s politics have long been affected by illegal immigration from Bangladesh.

The Assam Accord of 1985 was born out of mass agitation and fixed March 25, 1971 as the cut-off date for obtaining citizenship. But even after that, illegal influx continued. The BJP has consistently argued that the country’s political trajectory should be determined by the indigenous community rather than the immigrant Muslim population. Before the BJP formed its first ministry in 2016, voting patterns among the state’s minorities had historically been in line with the ruling party. The dynamic further changed after delimitation, with voters in the remaining Muslim-majority seats supporting the Congress as they feared whether their interests would be safe under the BJP.