Assam Assembly Elections 2026: The battle for identity, power and electoral ‘Asomya Jatiyotabad’

New Delhi: As the people of the ‘tea state’ prepare to elect a new government on April 9, ‘Asomiya jatiyotabad’ (assamNationalism) remains a central issue in Assam. For decades, the state has grappled with anxieties about protecting its cultural and demographic identity, particularly from the threat of “outsiders,” primarily illegal immigrants.As the campaign winds down, what’s playing out in the state’s towns, villages and remote corners is not just an overt political contest, but a quieter, deeper churning around identity politics.The 2026 assembly elections are therefore not just about who forms the next government, but a high-stakes referendum on Assam’s identity, power and future political direction.

Decline of regional parties?

One of the most striking changes in Assam’s political landscape is the decline in autonomy of regional parties. Historically, Assam’s politics have been shaped by strong regional movements that emerged out of demands to protect Assam’s identity. The Assam movement led to the formation of political platforms such as the Asom Gana Congress, which for a time dominated the political narrative in the state. However, the relevance of these regional powers has been questioned over the years.Political analysts believe that the “hijacking” of Asomia Jatyotabad by national parties, coupled with its superior organizational and financial resources, has forced regional parties to form alliances for survival.Columnist Brojan Dekar points out that identity politics has long been at the heart of elections in Assam. “Preserving culture, language and identity has always been a matter of concern for the people of Assam. Different political dispensations have exploited this in different ways,” he told PTI.He pointed out, bjpComing to power in 2016 was based on the same foundation.“If you saw the BJP fully coming to power in 2016, you would have seen that the poll slogan was ‘jati, mati, bheti’ (community, land, home), a direct reference to safeguarding indigenous identity. It remains committed to taking action against illegal Bangladeshis in the state in the 2026 elections,” he added.

The transformation of AGP’s political journey

The journey of the Assom Ghana Assembly reflects the wider challenges facing regional parties. The AGP once positioned itself as the main defender of Assam’s national identity and led the government in 1985 and 1996. Today, however, it finds itself a junior ally in a BJP-led alliance.The party’s roots lie in the Assam Agitation (1979-1985), a mass movement led by the All Assam Students’ Union and supported by the All Assam Ghana Sangram Parishad. The unrest focused on demands to identify and deport “illegal immigrants” and sparked widespread protests, strikes and political mobilization across the state.The movement finally signed the Assam Accord on August 15, 1985, after then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi held talks with its leaders. The agreement lays out a framework for detecting and deporting illegal immigrants while promising political and economic security to the people of Assam.Soon after, movement leaders turned to electoral politics. In October 1985, at a convention held in Golaghat, several regional groups, including the Asom Jatiyatabadi Dal and the Purbanchaliya Loka Parishad, came together to form the Asom Gana Parishad.Building on the momentum of the Assam Accord and strong regional sentiment, the AGP contested the 1985 Assembly elections with a focus on protecting Assam’s identity, economic development and greater national autonomy. The party fielded 107 candidates, won 64 seats, and formed Assam’s first regional government. In 1996, it came to power again in a similar manner.Over the years, however, the party’s influence has waned.Highlighting the shift, retired academic Nava Kumar Mahanta said the party was now contesting in far fewer seats and had seen significant changes in its candidate profile.“What is even more worrying now is that 13 of this year’s 26 candidates are Muslims, many of whom speak Bengali, a group the AGP had earlier suspected of being illegal immigrants,” he said.He added that while the AGP has secular views, it has historically distanced itself from Bengali-speaking Muslims, a stance that appears to have changed in recent years.

The Rise of the “Himanta Brand”

The core of this parliamentary election is Himanta Biswa Sarmais seeking a second consecutive term as Chief Minister. In 2021, in a state historically defined by ‘Jatiyotabad’ and ethnic identity, the BJP leadership chose Brahmin Sarma over incumbent Sarbananda Sonowal, who hails from Assam’s indigenous community.Over the years, Sarma has cultivated a unique political persona, often referred to as “Brand Himanta” or even colloquially as “Mama” (uncle), blending aggressive rhetoric with welfare-driven governance. His campaign this time relies heavily on a combination of strong messaging and emotional appeals.When Hemanta sought re-election as CM, anti-palace tirades, no-holds-barred approach, strong welfare propaganda and jati, mati, bheti (identity, land, home) propaganda became key pillars of his campaign strategy.Apart from this, the BJP-led government has also emphasized on welfare schemes and infrastructure development to consolidate its support base. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Himanta, consists of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Asom Gana Parishad, Bodoland People’s Front and Rabha-Hasong Joutha Mancha.For the BJP, the stakes are high. After forming governments in 2016 and 2021, the party is now aiming for a third consecutive term, this time aiming to gain a majority on its own.

congress The bank is at Gaurav Gogoi

On the other side of the political spectrum, the Congress party is trying to make a comeback by appointing Gaurav Gogoi as its chief ministerial spokesman.The party has launched an aggressive campaign against Sarma, targeting his record in power and ideological positioning. In a stinging attack earlier this year, Gogoi questioned the chief minister’s credibility on identity politics.“What is he trying to portray himself as? Does he believe he is a great Hindu leader or a great Kilungiya leader?” Gogoi asked on February 4, questioning Sarma’s assertion that he represented the interests of Assam’s indigenous people.He further pointed out that support for the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is a controversial issue in Assam. By invoking the term “Khilonjiya” (referring to the “indigenous” indigenous community of Assam), Gogoi sought to reposition the Congress within an identity discourse that has traditionally favored regional and nationalist narratives.

opposition alliance

To counter the BJP’s electoral machinery, the Congress formed a broad six-party opposition alliance that included left and regional forces.The alliance includes the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation Party, All Party Hill Leadership Conference, Assam People’s Party led by Lulin Jyoti Gogoi and Raijor Dal led by Akhil Gogoi. Together they work to solidify anti-incumbency sentiment and present a united front against the ruling coalition.The alliance has announced candidates for 122 of the 126 seats, with the Congress contesting most of the 94 constituencies. The Raijor Dal will contest 11 seats, including two “friendly fights” with the Congress.Akhil Gogoi, who won from Sivasagar in the last election but was jailed on sedition charges related to the anti-CAA protests, is again in the fray from the same constituency. Over the years, he has built a strong grassroots profile through sustained activism and mobilization.

The BJP has collectively targeted the parties even before they have officially come together, treating them as a de facto bloc.The BJP dubbed the trio “3G” and referred to them pejoratively as “Miya, Miya Pro and Miya Pro Max” in an apparent attempt to portray them as pro-Muslim. At the same time, it warned Lulin Jyoti Gogoi that allying with the Congress would be tantamount to betraying “Assamese nationalism”.Both Gogois belong to the Ahom community, a small but socially and politically influential community, especially in Upper Assam. The Ahom dynasty founded by Sukapa ruled the region for nearly 600 years until the arrival of British rule in the early 19th century, making the community’s political alignment critical in several constituencies.

Congress, BJP and the ‘Jatiyotabad’ narrative

Interestingly, both the Congress and the BJP have at different times tried to capitalize on the Assamese nationalist narrative.Analysts trace the shift to the former chief minister’s tenure Tarun Gogoithey have attempted to address identity issues through measures such as updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The BJP later expanded on this narrative with its “jati, mati, bheti” campaign, positioning itself as the leading defender of indigenous identity.This overlap blurs ideological boundaries and makes it difficult for regional parties to regain their original political space.

past election trends

The rise of the BJP in Assam has been remarkable.The party, which had just five seats in 2011, surged to 60 seats in the 2016 assembly elections, ending 15 years of Congress rule under Tarun Gogoi. With the support of allies AGP and BPF, the NDA won 86 of the 126 seats and formed the government with Sarbananda Sonowal as chief minister.The momentum continued in 2021 when the BJP again won 60 seats and retained power, with Himanta Biswa Sarma taking over as the 15th chief minister of the state.Now, in 2026, the party is looking to further consolidate its position.

High-profile candidates and key contests

The 2026 elections are fiercely contested, with 722 candidates competing in 126 constituencies. Notable names include Himanta Biswa Sarma, Gaurav Gogoi, Badruddin Ajmal, Speaker of Parliament Biswajit Daimary, Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia, and senior ministers including Ranoj Pegu, Chandramohan Patowary, Atul Bora, Keshab Mahanta, Ajanta Neog and Ashok Singhal.Regional leaders like Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi are also major contenders.

bigger problem

As Assam heads into this crucial election, the race is not just about who forms the next government.Can the BJP transform its dominance into an independent majority? Can Congress mount a credible challenge with its broad coalition? Perhaps most importantly, can regional parties regain influence in a political landscape increasingly dominated by state forces?Despite its current limitations, analysts believe regional politics is far from dead.“The sentiment among Assamese voters and the public towards ‘Asomiya Jatiyotabad’ is very high. People understand that a strong regional voice can only safeguard it,” Press Trust of India (PTI) quoted Brojen Deka as saying.The 2026 Assam Assembly elections are in many ways a test of competing narratives. On one side is a powerful national party seeking to consolidate its dominance, and on the other is a fragmented but determined opposition trying to regain lost ground.In between lies the enduring question of Assamese identity, its meaning, its guardians and its future.